The 2007-2008 NBA Season: Turns Out You Need More Than Three

2007 was the year it all began in Boston. The Celtics turned things around dramatically thanks to the the acquisitions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, and rode that combo (with incumbent Paul Pierce) all the way to 66-16 and a championship. If you’ve been paying attention to my methodology thus far, you know that player trades really don’t look the same in our world. But never fear! Both KG and Ray predate the re-draft era, so both will still wear the white and gold.

This photo summarizes well how the new 2007-2008 season will go for Boston. 

Well, wait. Maybe fear. Because even though Boston’s big three remained in place, the other five or six guys who made this team did not. Boston lost a bunch of key players alongside Allen, Garnett and Pierce, namely:

 

• Rajon Rondo (7.2), replaced by Andrea Bargnani (1.4)
• James Posey (6.2), replaced by Jumaine Jones (DNP)
• Kendrick Perkins (6.2), replaced by Travis Outlaw (3.2)
• Leon Powe (4.2), replaced by Dontell Jefferson (0.0)
• Eddie House (3.9), replaced by Khalid El-Amin (DNP)
• Glen Davis (2.5), replaced by Kyrylo Fesenko (0.0)
• Tony Allen (2.7), replaced by Kirk Snyder (1.1)

So you start KG-Allen-Pierce, and then who? They literally lost everyone else on their roster except Scot Pollard, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell, who that year combined to play 57 games. So it’s the big three, Travis Outlaw, Andrea Bargnani and Kirk Snyder. And Boston falls off a cliff, dropping 28 games (the biggest drop in the league) to 38-44, seventh in the East.

And what about the teams who traded Garnett and Allen away? Both improved!

If you remember, the Wolves acquired Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair and two draft picks, which would become Wayne Ellington and Jonny Flynn.

The two picks won’t affect the bottom line for the Wolves (22-60) this year, but check out how the rest of the trade shakes out with re-drafted parts:

• Ryan Gomes (4.8) becomes Sean May (0.0)
• Gerald Green (-0.4) becomes Jarrett Jack (3.2)
• Al Jefferson (7.7) becomes Jameer Nelson (5.6)
• Sebastian Telfair (0.7) becomes Chris Duhon (0.2)

That’s actually a drop-off of almost five games! Hooray for Boston. But the Wolves made it up and then some thanks to the rest of their changed roster:

• Andrew Bynum (4.8) replaced Rashad McCants (1.7)
• Luther Head (3.5) replaced Wayne Simien (DNP)
• James Posey (6.2) replaced William Avery (DNP)
• Zach Randolph (3.0) replaced Eddie Griffin (DNP)
• Marcus Fizer (DNP) replaced Marko Jaric (2.4)
• Hassan Adams (DNP) replaced Craig Smith (3.5)

A couple of big losses for sure, but the new-look Wolves rode their lineup of Posey-Jameer Nelson-Bynum-ZBo-Jarrett Jack-Head to a 32-50 record, up 10 games but still last in the West.

The Sonics (31-51) were also much better off, but considerably moreso. Seattle originally sent Allen and Big Baby to Boston for a package that included Jeff Green, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West. Here’s how those pieces shifted:

• Jeff Green (0.2) became Marc Gasol (DNP)
• Wally Szczerbiak (2.3) became Lamar Odom (9.7)
• Delonte was still Delonte.

This guy was part of a much-improved Sonics team in 2008, but will he deliver the same returns as Kevin Durant? (No.)

So that’s already a 7-game improvement, but just you wait. Here’s how the rest of the Seattle roster shifted:

 

• Kevin Durant (2.3) became Ramon Sessions (0.7)
• Johan Petro (0.4) became Ronny Turiaf (4.2)
• Robert Swift (-0.2) became Emeka Okafor (5.8)
• Luke Ridnour (0.9) became Jose Calderon (10.2)
• Mateen Cleaves (DNP) became Stromile Swift (1.4)
• Joe Forte (DNP) became Vlad Radmanovic (3.5)
• Chris Wilcox (3.4) became Dan Gadzuric (0.1)
• Nick Collison (4.5) became Mo Williams (4.5)

So behind a huge year from Calderon and Odom, and with help from Okafor, Turiaf, Williams, Radmanovic and Kurt Thomas, Seattle surges all the way to 59 wins, which surprisingly lands them fourth in the West. That improvement was also the best in the league.

A lot of other interesting things happened in 2007, believe it or not. In the West, the Lakers rode an MVP season from prime Kobe to 57 wins and the Western Conference spot in the finals. In our re-play, the Lakers actually gained two wins and finished 59-23, but were shut out by two other teams who had great improvements. Here’s a summary of their roster:

• Richard Jefferson (7.6) replaced Kwame Brown (0.5)
• Jason Terry (8.6) replaced Lamar Odom (9.7)
• Jason Maxiell (6.3) replaced Andrew Bynum (4.8)
• Aaron Brooks (1.4) replaced Javaris Crittenton (0.0)
• Kwame Brown (0.5) replaced Vlad Radmanovic (3.5)
• Jarvis Hayes (2.9) replaced Luke Walton (3.2)
• Dorell Wright (2.2) replaced Sasha Vujacic (3.6)
• Renaldo Balkman (1.3) replaced Jordan Farmar (3.9)
• Matt Bonner (2.0) replaced Brian Cook (-0.1)
• Travis Diener (2.5) replaced Ronny Turiaf (4.2)

The other big contenders out west were New Orleans and San Antonio.

The Hornets (56-26) suffered only a five-game setback, incredible considering they lost David West and Chris Paul, but it was enough to drop them to eighth in the conference at 51-31. Here’s how their roster changed:

• Rajon Rondo (7.2) replaced Hilton Armstrong (0.5)
• Jason Richardson (7.4) replaced Kirk Haston (DNP)
• Mike Miller (5.0) replaced Marcus Fizer (DNP)
• Lou Williams (4.4) replaced Chris Paul (17.8)
• Matt Carroll (3.0) replaced David West (8.4)
• Primoz Brezec (0.2) replaced Morris Peterson (3.8)
• Rasual Butler (1.2) went unreplaced
• Bostjan Nachbar (2.2) replaced Melvin Ely (0.3)
• Corey Brewer (-0.2) replaced Julian Wright (1.7)

The Spurs (56-26) were again in the red, but nowhere near as bad this time around, and that’s really thanks to Monta Ellis and Jamario Moon. Here’s how their roster shifted:

• Monta (9.0) replaced Ian Mahinmi (0.2)
• Jamario Moon (5.7) replaced Jamison Brewer (DNP)
• Shaq (2.8) replaced DerMarr Johnson (0.1)
• Manu Ginobili (11.1) went unreplaced
• Loren Woods (0.1) replaced Tony Parker (7.0)
• Brandan Wright (1.1) replaced Tiago Splitter (0.0)
• Brandon Hunter (DNP) replaced Matt Bonner (2.0)

A San Antonio team revolving around Duncan-Monta-Moon dropped only three games, to 53-29, but still only sixth out west.

In the East, we’ve already moved Boston out of the pole position, leaving two real contenders in their place: The Pistons and Magic.

Both teams stayed in the playoffs, but neither was competitive.

The Pistons (59-23) dropped off to 40-42 and finished fifth in the East behind a slate of huge losses. A team led by Josh Howard, Andrei Kirilenko and Al Horford sounds pretty good, but the team lacked a true star and was basically just OK. Here’s how it shook out:

• Chauncey Billups (13.5) went unreplaced
• Ryan Gomes (4.8) replaced Jason Maxiell (6.3)
• Wayne Simien (DNP) replaced Amir Johnson (3.0)
• Jannero Pargo (1.1) replaced Tayshaun Prince (7.5)
• Andrei Kirilenko (7.1) replaced Richard Hamilton (7.7)
• Al Horford (5.5) replaced Rodney Stuckey (2.0)
• Josh Howard (8.0) replaced Jarvis Hayes (2.9)
• Jeff Green (0.2) replaced Arron Afflalo (1.9)

The Magic (52-30) also dropped like a rock without their big star, Dwight Howard. Carried primarily by Danny Granger and Josh Smith, they went 38-44 and tied for sixth in the East, ending up with the eighth seed. Here are some of the biggest changes to their roster:

• Josh Smith (5.8) replaced Dwight Howard (12.9)
• Danny Granger (7.3) replaced Fran Vazquez (DNP)
• Keyon Dooling (3.7) replaced Hedo Turkoglu (9.0)
• Sasha Pavlovic (0.2) replaced Keith Bogans (4.9)
• Kris Humphries (1.8) replaced Jameer Nelson (5.6)

The Celtics were the biggest losers and the Sonics the biggest winners, but who else saw massive swings from their real-life results? Let’s highlight a few teams.

On the losing side, the Jazz saw the second-biggest slide, behind only the Celtics and just ahead of Detroit and Orlando. Utah originally went 54-28 but suffered so many big personnel losses that not even bringing in Chris Paul and Kevin Durant could right the ship. Here’s how their roster shook out:

• Chris Paul (17.8) replaced Deron Williams (11.3)
• Kevin Durant (2.3) replaced Morris Almond (-0.1)
• Alexander Johnson (0.2) replaced Paul Millsap (5.2)
• Jeryl Sasser (DNP) replaced Mehmet Okur (6.7)
• Juan Carlos Navarro (1.4) replaced Carlos Boozer (10.4)
• Lee Nailon (DNP) replaced Andrei Kirilenko (7.1)
• Rudy Gay (5.0) replaced Ronnie Brewer (7.8)
• Kelenna Azubuike (3.4) replaced C.J. Miles (1.9)

Utah lost 21 more games than they did originally, falling to 33-49 and second-worst in the West, ahead of only Minnesota.

Props to former Minnesota Golden Gopher, and best player on the 2007-2008 redrafted Wizards, Joel Przybilla.

It wasn’t necessarily a huge swing, but the Wizards (41-41) ended up at the bottom of the standings. Washington bested the Bucks and Nets in the art of tanking to get the most ping pong balls behind a series of moves including:

 

• Bobby Simmons (0.7) replaced Brendan Haywood (6.8)
• Drew Gooden (3.3) replaced Caron Butler (7.2)
• David Andersen (DNP) replaced Roger Mason (3.4)
• Shavlik Randolph (DNP) replaced Andray Blatche (3.0)
• Nik Tskitishvili (DNP) replaced Darius Songaila (1.7)
• Raul Lopez (DNP) replaced Gilbert Arenas (0.6)
• Jake Tsakalidis (DNP) replaced DeShawn Stevenson (4.1)
• Joel Przybilla (4.3) replaced Etan Thomas (0.0)
• Jared Dudley (2.9) replaced Nick Young (0.4)
• Thabo Sefolosha (1.5) replaced Oleksiy Pecherov (0.0)

Washington ended up 28-54, two games behind Milwaukee and New Jersey.

The Bobcats (32-50) were a huge winner, as their newly picked core finally started to come together. Charlotte ended up picking up 22 wins, rising to 54-28 and just outside the top spot in the East. Here’s a look at their new roster:

• LaMarcus Aldridge (6.2) replaced Adam Morrison (0.0)
• Deron Williams (11.3) replaced Ray Felton (3.4)
• Brandon Bass (4.3) replaced Sean May (0.0)
• Dwight Howard (12.9) replaced Emeka Okafor (5.8)
• Joe Johnson (7.0) replaced Jason Richardson (7.4)
• Jarron Collins (1.0) replaced Gerald Wallace (4.6)
• Glen Davis (2.5) replaced Jared Dudley (2.9)

But Charlotte ultimately fell short of Chicago, where the Bulls (33-49) again rode the Chauncey Billups experiment to smashing success. Here’s how their roster changed:

• Billups (13.5) replaced Tyrus Thomas (2.4)
• Mike Dunleavy (8.5) replaced Jay Williams (DNP)
• Leandro Barbosa (5.5) replaced Michael Sweetney (DNP)
• J.R. Smith (3.7) replaced Viktor Khryapa (0.0)
• Chris Wilcox (3.4) replaced Chris Jefferies (DNP)
• Craig Smith (3.5) replaced Thabo Sefolosha (1.5)
• Steve Blake (3.8) replaced Kirk Hinrich (3.6)
• Joel Anthony (0.6) replaced Joakim Noah (3.8)
• Beno Udrih (2.4) replaced Ben Gordon (5.1)
• Anderson Varejao (2.4) replaced Luol Deng (4.4)
• Ha-Seung Jin (DNP) replaced Chris Duhon (2.3)

Chicago’s Chauncey-Dunleavy-Barbosa-Steve Blake-J.R. Smith lineup, with Wilcox-Smith-Udrih-Varejao off the bench, surged 24 games to 57-25, tops in the East.

So who matched them out West? The conference came down to two teams.

The defending champion Nuggets (50-32) built on an already strong campaign by making a handful of strong moves. They also benefitted from a trade that had brough Steven Hunter (0.1) in originally, but in our world gifted them Brendan Haywood (6.8). Here are the rest of their big changes:

• Chris Bosh (10.1) replaced Carmelo Anthony (8.2)
• Josh Childress (7.6) replaced J.R. Smith (3.7)
• Caron Butler (7.2) replaced an injured Nene (0.3)
• Hakim Warrick (3.3) replaced Linas Kleiza (4.7)
• Quentin Richardson (0.3) replaced Kenyon Martin (5.0)
• Dan Langhi (DNP) replaced Eduardo Najera (4.1)

Finally, a championship for Steve Nash! 

Denver put up a good fight but finished 60-22, well short of your eventual West (and NBA) champs, the Suns.

 

Phoenix (55-27) has been consistently strong, but this year finally got over the hump to gain 13 wins. Here’s how their roster changed:

• Amar’e Stoudemire (14.6) replaced Nik Tskitishvili (DNP)
• Yao Ming (8.3) replaced Amar’e.
• Richard Hamilton (7.7) replaced Shawn Marion (6.5)
• Carlos Delfino (4.0) replaced Leandro Barbosa (5.5)
• Chris Kaman (3.6) replaced Boris Diaw (3.0)
• Kyle Korver (4.2) replaced Marcus Banks (0.3)

Behind Steve Nash, Amar’e, Yao, Richard Hamilton and Kyle Korver (editor’s note: Can you actually imagine this lineup in 2007? It would be amazing), the Suns overpowered the Bulls in the Finals and earning Mike D’Antoni the title that has always alluded him in real life.

P.S.

If you’re wondering about LeBron, he carried what had originally been a terrible team in Miami (15-67) hampered by a D-Wade injury to a 23-win improvement, finishing at 38-44 despite not having much help (The next best player on this team was arguably Andris Biedrins, with probably Sasha Vujacic after that).

STANDINGS

East
1. Bulls 57-25
2. Bobcats 54-28
3. Raptors 52-30
4. Hawks 47-35
5. Pistons 40-42
6. Pacers 38-44
7. Celtics 38-44
8. Magic 38-44
9. Heat 38-44
10. Cavaliers 37-45
11. Knicks 31-51
12. Sixers 31-51
13. Nets 30-52
14. Bucks 30-52
15. Wizards 28-54

West
1. Suns 68-14
2. Nuggets 60-22
3. Lakers 59-23
4. Sonics 59-23
5. Warriors 56-26
6. Spurs 53-29
7. Rockets 52-30
8. Hornets 51-31
9. Kings 42-40
10. Mavs 42-40
11. Clippers 40-42
12. Blazers 39-43
13. Grizzlies 38-44
14. Jazz 33-49
15. Wolves 32-50

FINALS
Suns over Bulls

MVP
Amar’e Stoudemire

Best Unprotected Player
Steve Nash

The 2007 NBA Re-Draft: Goodbye, Greg Oden

Missed opportunities like this one are part of the reason I wanted to do this project in the first place.

If you hadn’t heard by now, the Blazers took Greg Oden with the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. They were famously down to him and Kevin Durant, but took the Ohio State center, who suffered injury after injury, setting their team back five years and pretty much boosting the Sonics/Thunder franchise to greatness in the process.

This is still such a sad image, representing a potential we’ll never see reached. But guess what? Greg Oden was still worth a first-round pick!

Now, it’s not as if Portland will just get to go in and take Durant now. You must first earn the rights to the first pick! In the real draft lottery that year, the first pick winner (and second, for that matter) came out of nowhere. Portland had the sixth position but jumped all the way to the top.

In the re-do, that spot belongs to…the Jazz! Utah picks first.

The second pick ended up with the Sonics, who that year were sitting fifth in the lottery order. That pick, and a chance at one of the lesser stars in 2007, will now belong to the Pistons.

The third pick was also weird, going to the Hawks even though Atlanta was in the fourth position. In our re-draft, that pick belongs to the Celtics.

In my opinion, there are four franchise players in this draft. So the Kings, who had the top lottery spot, should thank their lucky stars they will pick fourth (the Grizzlies had the top lottery spot and picked fourth in real life).

The Bucks and Blazers, who were second and third for the lottery, will pick fifth and sixth, just missing out on the first tier of players.

As always, let’s go through some trade reminders, so you know which players will be traded before they actually play for the teams who pick them:

• The most notable trade of the draft took place between the Celtics and Sonics. Boston sent their first pick (originally Jeff Green), along with Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West, to Seattle in exchange for Ray Allen and the rights to a second-rounder that would become Glen Davis. So that early Boston pick will end up in Seattle, and Big Baby’s replacement pick will go to Boston.
• The Warriors and Bobcats also pulled a big trade, with Charlotte sending their first pick (Brandan Wright) to Golden State for Jason Richardson and the rights to a second-rounder (Jermareo Davidson). Jason Richardson is part of the re-draft era, which means replacement Joe Johnson is instead headed to Charlotte!
• The Heat sent their late first-rounder (Jason Smith) to the Sixers for their first-rounder (Daequan Cook) and a future pick. Those two will still trade their respective selections.
• The Blazers sent a big bag of money to the Suns for the rights to their late first-round pick (Rudy Fernandez) and James Jones. Jones is now Slavko Vranes, who’s done in the NBA. Who will the pick headed to Portland be?
• The Blazers also sent money and a second-round pick (Derrick Byars) to the Sixers for the very last pick of the first round, who ended up being Petteri Koponen.
• The Rockets took Carl Landry at 31 but traded him to the Sonics.

If you squint, you can kinda-sorta imagine this being a Jazz jersey, like maybe one of those weird green alternates.

The Jazz can pick between Kevin Durant and Marcus Camby, which isn’t a debate. So there’s your first pick. Let’s get the rest of the picks rolling!

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Utah Jazz: SF Kevin Durant, Texas (PG Morris Almond, Rice)
2. Detroit Pistons: PF Al Horford, Florida (SG Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Washington)
3. Boston Celtics: C Marc Gasol, Spain (SF Jeff Green, Georgetown)
4. Sacramento Kings: PG Mike Conley, Ohio State (C Spencer Hawes, Washington)
5. Milwaukee Bucks: C Joakim Noah, Florida (SF Yi Jianlian, China)
6. Portland Trail Blazers: PF Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech (C Greg Oden, Ohio State)
7. Washington Wizards: SF Jared Dudley, Boston College (SG Nick Young, USC)
8. Philadelphia 76ers: PF Carl Landry, Purdue (Thad Young)
9. Memphis Grizzlies: SG Arron Afflalo, UCLA (Mike Conley)
10. Detroit Pistons: Jeff Green (Arron Afflalo)
11. Atlanta Hawks: Rodney Stuckey (Al Horford)
12. Seattle SuperSonics: PG Ramon Sessions, Nevada (Kevin Durant)
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: C Tiago Splitter, Brazil (SF Corey Brewer, Florida)
14. San Antonio Spurs: C Brandan Wright, North Carolina (Tiago Splitter)
15. Charlotte Bobcats: SF Wilson Chandler, DePaul (Brandan Wright)
16. Atlanta Hawks: SG Marco Belinelli, Italy (PG Acie Law, Texas A&M)
17. Phoenix Suns: Spencer Hawes (SG Rudy Fernandez, Spain)
18. New Orleans Hornets: Corey Brewer (SF Julian Wright, Kansas)
19. Los Angeles Lakers: PG Aaron Brooks, Oregon (PG Javaris Crittenton, Georgia Tech)
20. Houston Rockets: PF Anthony Tolliver, Creighton (Aaron Brooks)
21. Charlotte Bobcats: PF Glen Davis, LSU (Jared Dudley)
22. Miami Heat: PF Josh McRoberts, Duke (PF Jason Smith, Colorado State)
23. Los Angeles Clippers: Nick Young (SF Al Thornton, Florida State)
24. Chicago Bulls: C Joel Anthony, UNLV (Joakim Noah)
25. Philadelphia Sixers: Rudy Fernandez (SG Daequan Cook, Ohio State)
26. Golden State Warriors: Jason Smith (Marco Belinelli)
27. New Jersey Nets: SG Gary Neal, IUPUI (PF Sean Williams, Boston College)
28. Phoenix Suns: PF Mirza Teletovic, Bosnia and Herzegovina (SF Alando Tucker, Wisconsin)
29. New York Knicks: Greg Oden (Wilson Chandler)
30. Philadelphia 76ers: C Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh (SG Petteri Koponen, Finland)

Round 2

1. MIA: Al Thornton (C Stanko Barac, Croatia)
2. SAS: C Gustavo Ayon, Mexico (SF Marcus Williams, Arizona)
3. POR: Daequan Cook (Josh McRoberts)
4. BOS: PF Ivan Johnson, Oregon (PG Gabe Pruitt, USC)
5. DET: SF Dominic McGuire, Fresno State (SG Sammy Mejia, DePaul)
6. UTA: Julian Wright (PF Herbert Hill, Providence)
7. WAS: SF Cartier Martin, Kansas State (Dominic McGuire)
8. MIN: Yi Jianlian (PF Chris Richard, Florida)
9. SEA: Sean Williams (Carl Landry)
10. ORL: Acie Law (SF Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina)
11. DAL: SG Mario West, Georgia Tech (PF Nick Fazekas, Nevada)
12. SEA: C Kyrylo Fesenko, Ukraine (Glen Davis)
13. GSW: Nick Fazekas (PF Jermareo Davidson, Alabama)
14. SAS: Chris Richard (PF Giorgis Printezis, Greece)
15. LAL: Alando Tucker (SF Sun Yue, China)
16. POR: Gabe Pruitt (SG Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt)
17. HOU: PF Stephane Lasme, UMass (SF Brad Newley, Australia)
18. NOH: Javaris Crittenton (SG Adam Haluska, Iowa)
19. LAL: Derrick Byars (Marc Gasol)
20. MIL: C Eric Dawson, Midwestern State (Ramon Sessions)
21. POR: Morris Almond (PG Taurean Green, Florida)
22. DAL: Jermareo Davidson (SG Renaldas Seibutis, Lithuania)
23. LAC: SG JamesOn Curry, Oklahoma State (PG Jared Jordan, Marist)
24. PHI: SG Trey Johnson, Jackson State (Kyrylo Fesenko)
25. DAL: SG Coby Karl, Boise State (C Milovan Rakovic, Serbia)
26. CHI: C Courtney Sims, Michigan (Aaron Gray)
27. GSW: Marcus Williams (Stephane Lasme)
28. PHX: Sun Yue (PG D.J. Strawberry, Maryland)
29. POR: Taurean Green (SF Demetris Nichols, Syracuse)
30. CHI: SF Zabian Dowdell, Virginia Tech (JamesOn Curry)

Biggest winner: Utah Jazz

The Jazz originally took Morris Almond with the 25th pick after a very good year. In our world, they had a very bad year, then won the lottery, then took Kevin Durant, a top-2 player in the league. So Almond —> Durant. That…that feels like a big win.

I should congratulate two teams who plummeted into this lottery for their big wins, the Pistons and Kings. Detroit originally took Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo, a VERY GOOD pairing for a team picking where they did (15 and 27). But they got even better, taking Al Horford and Jeff Green instead.

The Kings were actually already in the lottery, but turned Spencer Hawes into Mike Conley. That’s another big win.

It’s hard to argue against the new return for the Blazers, although they didn’t turn Oden into Durant (every Portland fan’s real dream). Their first-round haul turned from Oden, Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen into Thad Young, Spencer Hawes and Aaron Gray. Nothing amazing, but better.

Let’s also give some love to the Sonics, who lost the face of a franchise in Kevin Durant (replacing him with Ramon Sessions), but turned Jeff Green into a new face of a franchise in Marc Gasol. Then, instead of trading away Carl Landry and Glen Davis, two solid contributors down low, they traded away the newly-picked Sean Williams and Kyrylo Fesenko. That feels like progress!

Biggest loser: Memphis Grizzlies

Congrats to future Laker (and Grizzly) Derrick Byars, known forever in re-draft land as NOT MARC.

Here’s an example of how to set your franchise back a bajillion years. The Grizzlies lucked into the fourth pick and Mike Conley the first time around, and then thanks to the Lakers getting Marc Gasol at 48, they eventually got Marc in the Pau Gasol trade. Those two are arguably the two best players in Grizz history, and now neither will end up there. Instead, the Lakers will send DERRICK BYARS to Memphis next offseason, and the Grizz’s original first-rounder becomes Arron Afflalo. From a franchise center and point guard to a three-and-D wing and a nothing player.

There aren’t a ton of big losers after that, but we have to mention the Bulls, who lost Joakim Noah and ended up with Joel Anthony. And only the Spurs could go from picking 28th to picking 14th and actually end up with a less valuable player (Tiago Splitter to Brandan Wright, literally one spot lower in the rankings).

Let’s also shout out to the Hawks, who lost Al Horford and got Rodney Stuckey instead, but also replaced Acie Law with Marco Belinelli. That’s probably one step forward and 2 1/2 steps back.

The 2006-2007 NBA Season: Finally, competition!

If you’ve been paying close attention up to this point, you’ll notice a disturbing trend in our re-drafted universe: Teams aren’t just winning championships, they’re running away with them. In fact, our last three seasons have seen not only three teams with 70-plus wins, in each year the eventual champion had the best record by at least 13 games. That’s no fun!

Despair not, because for this year at least, that trend has ended. We’ll end up with five teams all within five games of the top record, which is so, so much more fun. Oh, and the lottery will be important! The upcoming draft has, arguably, four franchise-changing players. That means the difference between the fourth and fifth pick could be huge.

So, what happened in the real 2006-2007? More Spurs. San Antonio had the third-best record in the West behind Duncan-Manu-Parker but got to the finals and dismantled young LeBron’s Cavaliers, who had just finished second in the East. Your eventual MVP, Dirk, led the Mavericks to 67 wins, tops in the NBA. And young guns Brandon Roy (the Rookie of the Year) and LaMarcus Aldridge started their regime change in Portland, although the Blazers only won 32 games.

Other top competitors included the Steve Nash-Mike D’Antoni Suns, who fast-breaked their way to 61 wins, and the Pistons, who went 53-29 behind that defensive powerhouse of a lineup.

Let’s mess all that up, shall we? And let’s start, as I like to do, with the teams affected by the top rookies.

Two players, one number, and now…one  team!

The Blazers (32-50) seemed headed for a huge dropoff, losing LMA and Roy, but they had two things working in their favor: 1) Their record wasn’t good to start, and 2) Roy and Aldridge weren’t their eventual all-pro selves as rookies. All told, the Blazers did get worse, thanks to the summation of:

• Swapping Aldridge (3.4) for J.J. Redick (1.7) and
• Roy (4.8) for Ronnie Brewer (1.7)
• Swapping Jarrett Jack (4.8) for Gerald Green (1.6)
• Trading Zach Randolph (5.7) for Jamaal Tinsley (2.8)
• Eduardo Najera (4.8) played well in place of Joel Przyzbilla (0.3)
• Jamal Crawford (3.1) replaced Darius Miles (0.0)
• Rookie Tyrus Thomas (2.2) replaced Sergio Rodriguez (0.9)

All told, Portland dropped only three games and finished 29-53, second-worst in the West and tied for fourth-worst in the league.

And how about Roy and Aldridge’s new teams?

The Bobcats (33-49) were one of the bigger winners of the year thanks to Aldridge taking Adam Morrison’s (-1.5) place alone. Add in:

• Deron Williams (7.2) in place of Ray Felton (2.3)
• Dwight Howard (9.7) in place of Emeka Okafor (7.1)
• Bostjan Nachbar (4.1) for Melvin Ely (-0.2)
• Jarron Collins (1.3) replacing Gerald Wallace (7.7)

Despite losing Wallace, a D12-LMA-Deron-Nachbar-Derek Anderson lineup is good enough for 40-42 and an eighth seed.

The Kings (33-49), despite getting B-Roy (4.8) instead of Quincy Douby (0.0), plummeted in wins. That’s mostly because they were missing Kevin Martin (10.2), who had been replaced by David Harrison (-0.2). Another drop came thanks to Ron Artest (6.7) being replaced by Kenny Thomas (1.2). Roy actually was the best player in Sacramento as a rookie, but was only able to lead a core of him, Mike Bibby, Devin Brown, Ray Felton, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Brad Miller to 21 wins, the worst record in the NBA.

Other big competitors for the most ping-pong balls included the Bucks and the Celtics.

Milwaukee originally went 28-54 and saw their win total barely budge. Their new team was built by:

• David Lee (6.9) replacing Andrew Bogut (4.0)
• Chris Porter (DNP) replacing Michael Redd (6.1)
• Jason Kapono (4.2) in place of the inactive Szymon Szewczyk
• Quinton Ross (3.2) in place of Reece Gaines (DNP)
• Amir Johnson (0.5) in place of Charlie Villanueva (1.7)
• James Lang (0.1) in place of Mo Williams (3.2)

The Bucks ran with a David Lee-Ruben Patterson-Kapono-Ross-Earl Boykins lineup and went 26-56.

Boston was also already bad in real life, going just 24-58 in Rajon Rondo’s actual rookie year. Despite losing Rondo (2.4) and replacing him with Bargnani (1.9), the redraft Celtics actually got a little better!

• They added Jarrett Jack (4.8) for Gerald Green (1.6)
• Chris Duhon (4.8) for Sebastian Telfair (0.5)
• Lamar Odom (4.7) for Wally Szczerbiak (1.6)
• Flip Murray (1.3) for Curtis Borchardt (inactive)

That offset other big negative moves, including:

• Swapping Al Jefferson (6.6) for Jameer Nelson (4.0)
• Ryan Gomes (4.2) for Sean May (2.2)

The Celtics, with a lineup of Paul Pierce-Jarrett Jack-Jameer Nelson-Duhon-Odom and Bargs, Murray, Travis Outlaw and Sean May off the bench, ended up 29-53, five games improved.

That’s a nice bump up, but nothing compared to the Warriors. Golden State (originally 34-48) was again the big winner thanks to numerous big, big upgrades overpowering big losses. Namely, they lost Monta Ellis (4.0), Matt Barnes (3.7) and Andris Biedrins (6.7) and replaced them with Stephen Graham (-0.1), Tamar Slay (DNP) and Tony Allen (1.9). But it really did not matter.

The Dubs long list of upgrades included:

• Manu Ginobili (10.6) for Baron Davis (6.4)
• Gerald Wallace (7.7) for Rodney White (DNP)
• Carlos Boozer (9.9) for Mike Dunleavy (1.9)
• Kirk Hinrich (10.1) for Mickael Pietrus (3.6)
• Joe Johnson (5.1) for Jason Richardson (3.0)
• Andres Nocioni (4.1) for Sean Lampley (DNP)
• DeSagana Diop (3.8) for Brandon Armstrong (DNP)
• Luke Ridnour (2.3) for Dajuan Wagner

Elton Brand’s near-MVP season powered a Knicks renaissance. 

The very deep Warriors powered their way to 59-23, a 25-game improvement, and third in the West.

Another big repeat winner was the Knicks (33-49). New York had five big losses:

• David Lee (6.9) for C.J. Miles (-0.5)
• Renaldo Balkman (2.8) for Leon Powe (1.7)
• Nate Robinson (3.2) for Ian Mahinmi (0.0)
• Quentin Richardson (3.2) for Jake Voskuhl (1.7)
• Jamal Crawford (3.1) for Jamaal Magloire (1.1)

But the Knicks were able to replace that core and then some with the following moves:

• Tony Parker (9.6) in place of Eddy Curry (4.7)
• Andrew Bogut (4.0) for Channing Frye (0.9)
• Elton Brand (11.5) for Steve Francis (2.9), who had been acquired via trade
• Charlie Bell (4.0) for Michael Wright (DNP)
• Jeff Foster (4.5) for Frederic Weis (DNP)
• Udonis Haslem (5.1) for Qyntel Woods (DNP)
• Matt Barnes (3.7) for Jared Jeffries (1.2), acquired in free agency
• Maurice Evans (2.6) for Eric Chenoweth (DNP)

That group of Brand-Parker-Haslem-Foster-Bell-Barnes-Bogut, added to Stephon Marbury’s 5.9 WS, was a 20-win improvement, making the Knicks 53-29, third in the East.

The other really big winner worth mentioning is the Grizzlies (22-60). Memphis earned the right to draft Mike Conley with its bad season in real life, but won’t get the opportunity this time thanks to a big improvement. Their one big loss was Hakim Warrick (3.7) was replaced by Ersan Ilyasova (DNP). Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry didn’t contribute much as rookies, so swapping them for P.J. Tucker and Rodney Carney made little difference in year one.

The Grizz stepped forward thanks to these changes:

• Mickael Pietrus (3.6) for Troy Bell (DNP)
• T.J. Ford (4.3) for Dahntay Jones (0.7)
• Michael Redd (6.1) for Mike Miller (4.8)
• Mehmet Okur (8.8) for Pau Gasol (6.9)
• DeShawn Stevenson (3.1) for Jake Tsakalidis (-0.2)
• Rasual Butler (2.6) for Ryan Humphrey (DNP)
• Steven Hunter (2.8) for Raul Lopez (DNP)

Behind an Okur-Redd top two, with Chucky Atkins, Ford, Pietrus, Stevenson, Hunter and Butler in support, the Grizz picked up 16 wins to finish 38-44, six games out of a playoff spot.

So who fell the furthest in the standings? That would be the Pistons (53-29). Detroit lost Chauncey Billups (11.4) in the last draft, and things didn’t get better after that. Tayshaun Prince (8.0) was replaced by Jannero Pargo (2.0) and Richard Hamilton (8.1) was replaced by Andrei Kirilenko (4.4), two big blows to the starting five. Carlos Delfino (2.9) and Flip Murray (1.3) were swapped out for Marquis Daniels (0.6) and Vincent Yarbrough (DNP), hurting the bench. The Pistons did gain a couple of wins adding Ryan Gomes (4.2) over Jason Maxiell (1.8).

With a lineup of Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Kirilenko, Gomes and Chris Webber, the Pistons sputtered to a 30-52 record, well off the top spot in the East where they had originally finished.

The next-biggest drop-off happened to the Jazz (51-31), originally a real competitor out west. But a series of moves chopped this team off at the knees:

• Mehmet Okur (8.8) out, Jeryl Sasser (DNP) in
• Carlos Boozer (9.9) out, Juan Carlos Navarro (DNP) in
• Andrei Kirilenko (4.4) out, Lee Nailon (DNP) in
• Paul Millsap (4.7) out, Alexander Johnson (1.3) in
• Ronnie Brewer (1.7) out, Rudy Gay (0.5) in
• Gordan Giricek (1.9) out, Tim James (DNP) in

This is all despite adding Chris Paul (8.8) in place of Deron Williams (7.2). With a lineup basically of Paul, Matt Harpring, Derek Fisher, Steve Francis, Shaun Livingston and Alexander Johnson, the Jazz sputter to 30-52.

And of course, the Spurs (58-24) weren’t the same contenders as in real life. Tim Duncan is still around but San Antonio dropped to 44-38, ninth in the west, behind these moves:

• Tony Parker (9.6) out, Loren Woods (0.0) in
• Manu Ginobili (10.6) out, no replacement
• Matt Bonner (2.2) out, Brandon Hunter (DNP) in
• Francisco Elson (3.1) out, Ryan Robertson (DNP) in

But they did have two really bright spots:

• Monta Ellis (4.0) replaced Ian Mahinmi (0.0), and
• Ben Gordon (8.6) was great in place of Beno Udrih (1.0)

So who did that leave to compete for the title? The east basically came down to two teams, one of whom was…

The Nets (49-33). This team was already good, but saw a boost in a few places:

• Josh Boone (1.7) replaced Marcus Williams (-0.1)
• Zaza Pachulia (4.8) replaced Zoran Planinic (DNP)
• Gilbert Arenas (10.8) replaced Richard Jefferson (3.4)

That Arenas performance alone was almost enough to overcome the couple of big losses New Jersey did suffer. Their biggest loss was probably Bostjan Nachbar (4.1), whose spot was taken by Nenad Krstic (1.9). Eddie House (1.9) was missing, too, replaced by inactive Khalid El-Amin.

The Nets overall gained 10 wins, finishing 59-23 but falling just short of your East champions.

For that honor, look no further than the Bulls. Chicago also originally went 49-33 but is riding a great first year class to the conference title. First up, no move paid off more than adding Chauncey Billups (11.4) in place of Tyrus Thomas (2.2)! Other gains:

• Craig Smith (3.9) over Thabo Sefolosha (0.8)
• Mike Dunleavy (5.1) over Jay Williams (DNP)
• Chris Wilcox (6.0) over Chris Jefferies (DNP)
• J.R. Smith (3.7) over Viktor Khryapa (0.4), who came over in the Chauncey trade
• Leandro Barbosa (8.2) over Mike Sweetney (0.4)

And this is all despite losing Ben Gordon (8.6), Luol Deng (11.3) and Chris Duhon (4.8), replaced by Beno Udrih (1.0), Anderson Varejao (6.6) and Ha-Seung Jin (DNP).

The Bulls rode Billups, Barbosa, Ben Wallace, Varejao, Wilcox and Dunleavy to a 61-21 record and the NBA Finals.

Out West, the Spurs are out of the way. Can the Mavs or Suns hold on?

Dallas (67-15) took the bigger drop of the two. The team lost a bunch of contributors, including:

• Josh Howard (8.8), replaced by James Singleton (0.7)
• Devin Harris (6.5), replaced by Trevor Ariza (3.4)
• Jason Terry (10.8), replaced by Corey Maggette (3.0)

Still, the Mavs were able to pick back up some of those wins, thanks to Shane Battier (9.0) replacing DeSagana Diop (3.8). The team, with a core of Dirk-Battier-Erick Dampier-Ariza-Maggette-Jerry Stackhouse, ends up 13 games lower than its original record, at 54-28 and fourth in the West.

The Suns (61-21) had some high-profile player movement but ended up around the same place as in real life. Here are some of their high-profile moves:

• Yao Ming (7.4) replaced Amar’e Stoudemire (11.2)
• Richard Hamilton (8.1) replaced Shawn Marion (12.0)
• Carlos Delfino (2.9) replaced Leandro Barbosa (8.2)
• Chris Kaman (2.9) replaced Boris Diaw (4.6)
• Kyle Korver (4.6) replaced free agent acquisition Marcus Banks (0.4)
• Amar’e re-joined the Suns in what had been a Nik Tskitishvili (DNP) trade

That group, paired with Steve Nash, lost only 22 games, a one-game downgrade. But still, they were only second out west!

Young Chris Bosh powered a deep Nuggets team to a title in the new 2007. 

So who took over the West, and by extension, the league? That would be the Denver Nuggets (45-37). What was already a pretty good team actually saw one of the biggest forward leaps in the league. Here are some of their more important player moves:

• Chris Bosh (9.6) replaced Carmelo Anthony (7.3)
• Quentin Richardson (3.5) replaced the injured Kenyon Martin (0.0)
• Baron Davis (6.4) replaced Andre Miller (1.9)
• Josh Childress (5.5) replaced J.R. Smith (3.7)
• Chuck Hayes (6.4) replaced Julius Hodge (0.1)
• Caron Butler and Nene canceled each other out (5.3)
• Aging Shaq (2.8) replaced DerMarr Johnson (-0.3)
• Ike Diogu (1.5) replaced Ricky Sanchez (DNP)
• Hakim Warrick (3.7) replaced Linas Kleiza (2.8)
• Dan Langhi (DNP) replaced Eduardo Najera (4.8)

The Nuggets added 19 wins with this set of moves, powering to 64-18 and tops in the league. And with a list of relative non-stars, it’s easy for Denver to protect Chris Bosh and leave guys like Baron Davis, Josh Childress, Caron Butler, an old Shaq, and Quentin Richardson available for whoever gets the first pick. Who’s the best unprotected guy? Scroll down to find out…

STANDINGS

West
1. Nuggets 64-18
2. Suns 60-22
3. Warriors 59-23
4. Mavs 54-28
5. Clippers 52-30
6. Rockets 47-35
7. Lakers 46-36
8. Hornets 44-38
9. Spurs 44-38
10. Wolves 42-40
11. Sonics 41-41
12. Grizzlies 38-44
13. Jazz 30-52
14. Blazers 29-53
15. Kings 21-61

East
1. Bulls 61-21
2. Nets 59-23
3. Knicks 53-29
4. Heat 51-31
5. Raptors 48-34
6. Cavs 41-41
7. Pacers 41-41
8. Bobcats 40-42
9. Hawks 40-42
10. Magic 38-44
11. Sixers 36-46
12. Wizards 32-50
13. Pistons 30-52
14. Celtics 29-53
15. Bucks 26-56

NBA Finals: Nuggets over Bulls

Nuggets protect Chris Bosh

Best player available: Marcus Camby

 

2006 NBA Re-Draft: Chauncey or LaMarcus?

Brace yourself for the most statistically controversial re-draft decision I made during this project!

As we approach the 2006 NBA Draft, the defending champion Pistons are coveting a number of assets. None of them have more value than Carmelo Anthony, so that’s who Detroit will protect coming into this draft. That leaves the best available player as Chauncey Billups, a point guard who blossomed a little late and led a few teams to great results, nowhere more so than Detroit.

Neither of these guys will end up in Rip City. That’s going to hurt. 

By 2006, Chauncey’s already 29 years old. But he’s got more than 70 win shares left in the tank, including multiple seasons in the immediate future where he’s an All-Star, double-digit win guy. So when our top pick comes around, do you go with Chauncey, who will have a handful of big WS numbers in the immediate future, or the top asset in a draft devoid of absolute superstars, LaMarcus Aldridge (around 80 WS career, but more spread out)?

Before we chew that decision, we’d better figure out who gets the top pick. In the real-life 2006 lottery, things got a little nutty. The team with the worst record, then the Blazers, were the victims of fate, falling all the way back to the fourth pick. The worst record in our world belonged to the Raptors, so slot them in at 4.

Speaking of Toronto, the very same Raptors in real life won the first pick despite having fifth-best odds. The worst team in the newly simulated West, the Blazers, will ride that wave of good fortune to our top pick. Small world!

The rest of the lottery played out as expected, so that means the Bobcats, Hawks, Raptors, Bucks and Jazz round out the top 6, in that order. The Hornets will actually pick in the Bucks’ spot, however, because Milwaukee traded this pick for Jamaal Magloire. That was an all-time backfire, but in real life it was only No. 15. This hurts a lot more.

Speaking of trades, here’s a reminder of draft-day deals that affected this draft (there were many):

• The Blazers traded their first pick (Tyrus Thomas) to the Bulls for LaMarcus Aldridge (who was Chicago’s top pick). The Bulls also grabbed Viktor Khryapa in that deal. The two will swap top picks once again.
• The Blazers made another set of complicated deals after that, swapping Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and a future pick for the Celtics‘ first pick (Randy Foye) and filler. They then flipped Foye to the Wolves for their pick, Brandon Roy. The Wolves will still end up with the Celtics first pick and Blazers will still get the Wolves draftee.
• The Grizzlies acquired the first pick by the Rockets (Rudy Gay) and Stromile Swift in a trade for Shane Battier.
• The Bulls traded their second pick (Rodney Carney) to the Sixers for the 13th pick, Thabo Sefolosha.
• The Suns traded the pick they used on Rajon Rondo, along with Brian Grant, to the Celtics for a first-rounder in 2007.
• The Suns also traded their next pick, Sergio Rodriguez, to the Blazers for cash.

Stealing Chauncey is a win on two fronts for Chicago: 1) He’s a great player, and 2) It breaks up a major road block to a conference championship.

When I set out to do this project, I made ranking players all about the win shares. There will be one top pick soon that will seem super dumb and that will be my justification. But for reasons that are entirely stupid and human, I’m having the Blazers take Chauncey for the Bulls, in order to break up a conference rival and shoot for the moon. We’ll see what happens!

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Portland Trail Blazers: PG Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons (PF Tyrus Thomas, LSU)
2. Charlotte Bobcats: PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas (SF Adam Morrison, Gonzaga)
3. Atlanta Hawks: PF Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech (PF Shelden Williams, Duke)
4. Toronto Raptors: PG Kyle Lowry, Villanova (PF Andrea Bargnani, Italy)
5. New Orleans Hornets: PG Rajon Rondo, Kentucky (C Hilton Armstrong, UConn)
6. Utah Jazz: SF Rudy Gay, UConn (SG Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas)
7. Chicago Bulls: SG J.J. Redick, Duke (LaMarcus Aldridge)
8. Sacramento Kings: SG Brandon Roy, Washington (SG Quincy Douby, Rutgers)
9. Washington Wizards: SG Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland (C Oleksiy Pecherov, Ukraine)
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: Ronnie Brewer (Brandon Roy)
11. Orlando Magic: PG C.J. Watson, Tennessee (J.J. Redick)
12. Seattle SuperSonics: SG Randy Foye, Villanova (C Mouhamed Sene, Senegal)
13. Houston Rockets: SF P.J. Tucker, Texas (Rudy Gay)
14. Phoenix Suns: Andrea Bargnani (Rajon Rondo)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers: PG J.J. Barea, Puerto Rico (SG Shannon Brown, Michigan State)
16. Philadelphia 76ers: PF Craig Smith, Boston College (Thabo Sefolosha)
17. Chicago Bulls: PG Daniel Gibson, Texas (SF Rodney Carney, Memphis)
18. Boston Celtics: SF Steve Novak, Marquette (Randy Foye)
19. Indiana Pacers: PG Jordan Farmar, UCLA (PF Shawne Williams, Memphis)
20. Phoenix Suns: Tyrus Thomas (SG Sergio Rodriguez, Spain)
21. New York Knicks: PF Leon Powe, California (SF Renaldo Balkman, South Carolina)
22. New York Knicks: C Ryan Hollins, UCLA (PG Mardy Collins, Temple)
23. New Orleans Hornets: Shelden Williams (SF Cedric Simmons, N.C. State)
24. Dallas Mavericks: Shannon Brown (SG Maurice Ager, Michigan State)
25. New Jersey Nets: PF Josh Boone, UConn (PG Marcus Williams, UConn)
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Renaldo Balkman (Jordan Farmar)
27. Golden State Warriors: PF Lou Amundson, UNLV (C Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley)
28. New Jersey Nets: Shawne Williams (Josh Boone)
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Rodney Carney (Kyle Lowry)
30. Portland Trail Blazers: PG Chris Quinn, Notre Dame (PF Joel Freeland, England)

Round 2

1. TOR: PF Solomon Jones, USF (P.J. Tucker)
2. LAC: Sergio Rodriguez (C Paul Davis, Michigan State)
3. ATL: Hilton Armstrong (Solomon Jones)
4. ORL: Joel Freeland (PF James Augustine, Illinois)
5. POR: F Chris Copeland, Colorado (SG James White, Cincinnati)
6. UTA: SG Tarence Kinsey, South Carolina (PG Dee Brown, Illinois)
7. UTA: PF Alexander Johnson, Florida State (Paul Millsap)
8. CHA: SF Bobby Jones, Washington (Ryan Hollins)
9. WAS: James White (F Vladimir Veeremenko, Belarus)
10. MIN: PG Hassan Adams, Arizona (Craig Smith)
11. ORL: PG Pooh Jeter, Portland (F Lior Eliyahu, Israel)
12. SEA: SF Allan Ray, Villanova (SG Denham Brown, UConn)
13. MIL: Patrick O’Bryant (SF David Noel, North Carolina)
14. MIN: Oleksiy Pecherov (Bobby Jones)
15. CLE: Paul Davis (Daniel Gibson)
16. CLE: David Noel (F Ejke Ugboaja, Nigeria)
17. HOU: PF Pops Mensah-Bonsu, George Washington (Steve Novak)
18. MIN: Mouhamed Sene (C Loukas Mavrokefalidis, Greece)
19. IND: James Augustine (Alexander Johnson)
20. LAL: SF Larry Owens, Oral Roberts (C Cheikh Samb, Senegal)
21. SAS: F Marcus Vinicius, Brazil (F Damir Markota, Croatia)
22. DEN: SG Dontell Jefferson, Arkansas (Leon Powe)
23. NOH: Cedric Simmons (Marcus Vinicius)
24. DAL: Dee Brown (PG J.R. Pinnock, George Washington)
25. LAC: Quincy Douby (SG Guillermo Diaz, Miami)
26. TOR: Marcus Williams (F Edin Bavcic, Bosnia)
27. GSW: C Kosta Perovic, Serbia (Kosta Perovic!)
28. NJN: Guillermo Diaz (Hassan Adams)
29. SEA: Cheikh Samb (SG Yotam Halperin, Israel)
30. DET: PG Will Blalock, Iowa State (Will Blalock!)

Biggest winner: Charlotte Bobcats

In another year where plenty of teams made awful, awful picks, Charlotte may have benefited more than anyone by correcting an egregious mistake. Instead of taking Adam Morrison (whom I didn’t even re-draft, that’s how bad he was!), the Bobs add LaMarcus Aldridge to a promising core that’s already revolving around Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. That feels like a superteam-in-the-making, even if they won’t all be superstars right away.

I can’t help but look at the Hawks as a major winner as well. They took Shelden Williams in the original draft, which isn’t a horrendous pick, but instead end up with Paul Millsap, who eventually made his way to Atlanta anyway. Of course, Shelden won’t be around for that long in Atlanta, so Millsap may pay off more for a few other teams…

Also, we can’t gloss over the Raptors. They took the legendary Andrea Bargnani originally, but end up with Kyle Lowry here. That feels like a bigger upgrade than it statistically is, but it’s still an upgrade.

One more teeny acknowledgement: The Hornets flipped Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons in round 1 for Rajon Rondo and Shelden Williams. That’s a bump up.

Biggest loser: Portland Trail Blazers

When I look for a biggest loser, I usually start by looking for great values taken last in round 2. In this draft, look no further than Utah, where the Jazz plucked Paul Millsap at 47. Instead, he’s replaced by Alexander Johnson, a huge drop. So why is Utah not the biggest loser? Well, they also replaced Ronnie Brewer with Rudy Gay (a good-sized jump up) and Dee Brown with Tarence Kinsey (a little jump up). Those two improved picks help offset Millsap, even if they don’t erase the gap.

So I’ll keep looking. There’s no one else who made a big impact taken in round 2, so how about the Grizzlies, who got Kyle Lowry at 24? Their new pick is Rodney Carney, who’s a substantial downgrade. But Lowry, of course, will be traded soon, so Memphis’s loss really isn’t as big as, say, Toronto’s or Houston’s will be farther down the road of Lowry’s career. The Grizz will also lose Rudy Gay, getting good player P.J. Tucker instead, but Tucker will spend a significant part of his 20s playing overseas. But I think I can find a bigger loser…

That brings me to the second-biggest loser of the draft: The Celtics. Boston acquired Rajon Rondo via trade from Phoenix after the Suns originally took him 21st. Not so this time! Instead, it’s Andrea Bargnani whom the Celtics will acquire. That’s only one player, but it’s a big, big drop, and it will hamper the Big 3 era in Boston.

Now, our real losers: The Blazers. Portland got two building blocks in this original draft, LaMarcus Aldridge (the best player here) and Brandon Roy (the seventh-best, but probably second-best or best at his peak). And both of those guys were acquired via trade.

You could argue that draft pick trades get most effed-up by my system, with teams having vastly different picks to send to one team or another. That hasn’t quite taken hold here, but the Blazers’ acquisitions are still dramatically different.

Instead of entering 2006 with Aldridge and Roy, two future all-stars who will elevate Rip City, the Blazers walk away with J.J. Redick, a fourth option on a competitor, and Ronnie Brewer, a basic three-and-D guy. Neither J.J. nor Ronnie is what you’d call a bust, but make no mistake: Those guys aren’t franchise cornerstones. This could hurt Portland for a long, long time.

The 2005-2006 NBA Season: Super-Teams Are Just a Thing Now

2005-2006 featured teams with a grip on the league tightening that grip even more during the regular season. The Pistons played lights-out defense en route to winning 64 games. The Spurs played even better defense on their way to 63 wins. But it was the regular-season-runners-up, the Mavericks (60-22) and the Heat (52-30) who ended up meeting in the finals, and that’s where Dwyane Wade did his thing, carrying the Heat in six and bringing a title back to Miami.

While their teams made less noise in the playoffs, it was also a big year for MVP repeat-winner Steve Nash and Rookie of the Year Chris Paul. The Hornets, playing part of that season in Oklahoma City after Hurricane Katrina, won 38 but fell short of the playoffs, while the Suns D’Antoni’d their way to 54 wins.

Would Carmelo’s career have been any different if Detroit had chosen him? Our simulation points to yes. 

For our re-simulation, let’s start in NO-OKC, where the Hornets (38-44) are adjusting to life without Chris Paul. If you’ll remember, they jumped up dramatically last year on the strength of young Manu Ginobili, Josh Childress and Jason Richardson, ultimately playing their way out of the CP3 sweepstakes. And in 2005-2006, they continue to thrive, even without CP3. Big gains came in the form of Childress (5.7) over J.R. Smith (1.2), Richardson (7.3) over the inactive Kirk Haston, Mike Miller (7.4) over Marcus Fizer (0.4), Nenad Krstic (5.4) over Bostjan Nachbar (0) and Reggie Evans (2.1) over Casey Jacobsen (0.0). They could have been even better, but lost David West (7.4) in favor of Matt Carroll (2.6) and Chris Paul (10.4), replaced by Lou Williams (-0.1), but still gained 14 wins and finished 52-30, fifth in the West. Manu followed Baron Davis out of town, which you’ll read more about later!

As it turns out, Chris Paul’s new team was nowhere near as good. The Jazz (41-41) actually got worse despite adding the Rookie of the Year (10.4) in place of Deron Williams (2.8) and playing Kevin Martin (5.5) instead of Kris Humphries (0.2). Big losses came from the absence of the unreplaced Mehmet Okur (9.3), playing Lee Nailon (0.5) in Andrei Kirlienko’s spot (7.9) and Juan Carlos Navarro (0.0) instead of Carlos Boozer (3.5). Utah dropped to 33-49, second-to-last in the West and in potential prime position for another lottery run.

No bigger gain in wins happened than the one in Oakland. The Warriors (34-48) lost Monta Ellis in the draft but didn’t feel the impact yet, thanks to adding Kirk Hinrich (7.6) over Mickael Pietrus (0.6), Luke Ridnour (4.4) in place of Zarko Cabarkapa (0.3), Gerald Wallace (6.4) over the inactive Rodney White, Andres Nocioni (6.7) over inactive Sean Lampley and DeSagana Diop (4.1) over inactive Brandon Armstrong. They got another boost by adding Manu Ginobili (8.8) in what was originally the Baron Davis (4.4) signing. All the wins were enough to overcome the loss of Troy Murphy (6.5), Andris Biedrins (2.9), Mike Dunleavy (4.2) and Jason Richardson (7.3), who were replaced by Jason Collins (2.0), Tony Allen (1.7), Carlos Boozer (3.5) and Joe Johnson (6.0), respectively. The Dubs went 56-26, second in the conference.

The other huge jump happened at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks (23-59) went from duds to competitors out east. Their biggest net gains came courtesy of the former Eddy Curry (3.3) signing, which got them Tony Parker (9.6), and the Qyntel Woods (1.3) signing, which got them Udonis Haslem (7.0). Jeff Foster (5.7) continued to be a big piece in place of the inactive Frederic Weis, Charlie Bell (3.3) and Maurice Evans (3.2) added wins in place of inactive Michael Wright and Eric Chenoweth, and Andrew Bogut (5.5) proved a slightly more productive rookie than Channing Frye (3.5). New York did lose games replacing David Lee (2.7) with C.J. Miles (0.3) and Jamal Crawford (4.5) with Jamaal Magloire (2.0), but still ended up at 44-38 and sixth in the East.

The biggest losers of the year were the Bucks (40-42), who dropped into the lottery race by replacing Andrew Bogut (5.5) with David Lee (2.7), Dan Gadzuric (2.5) with Kareem Rush (-0.2), Mo Williams (2.5) with James Lang (0.0) and Michael Redd (10.8) with the retired Chris Porter. They haven’t even felt the impact from losing Ersan Ilyasova (inactive) and replacing him with Alan Anderson (0.4), and they still went 26-56, fourth-worst in the league.

The lottery was really dominated by the east, where the Hawks, Bobcats and Raptors fought it out for the most ping-pong balls.

Atlanta (26-56) was already bad and only dropped a game, making lateral moves like replacing Salim Stoudamire (1.2) with Joey Graham (1.3), swapping out Josh Childress (5.7) for Andre Iguodala (7.5) and adding Devin Harris (3.7) in place of Josh Smith (3.6). They actually gained some ground with Eddie House (1.6) and Devean George (2.6) taking over for Cal Bowdler and Jason Collier (both inactive), but lost it all with the unreplaced Zaza Pachulia (3.9) and free agent signing Joe Johnson (6.0) morphing into Sam Dalembert (3.6). The birds went 25-57, but still only finished in the third spot for the lottery.

The Bobcats (26-56) have made two improved decisions adding Dwight Howard (8.6) over Emeka Okafor (1.0) and Deron Williams (2.8) over Ray Felton (2.6), but still aren’t ready to take a big step forward. In fact, Charlotte missed out on big years from a few guys they added via the expansion draft, most notably Primoz Brezec (4.6), replaced by DerMarr Johnson (1.3), Melvin Ely (2.0) replaced by Bostjan Nachbar (0.1) and Gerald Wallace (6.4), replaced by Jason Collins (3.9). They acquired Jumaine Jones (3.0) via trade originally, but he’s replaced by inactive Evan Eschmeyer. A positive came via Fred Jones (2.6), who replaced free agent acquisition Kareem Rush (-0.2). The Bobs dropped three games, finishing 23-59 and second-to-last in the league.

That leaves the Raptors (27-55) to position themselves atop the lottery. The bad Raps got even worse thanks largely to the losses of Charlie Villanueva (3.9), replaced by Amir Johnson (0.2); Chris Bosh (9.8), replaced by David West (7.4); and Matt Bonner (4.1), replaced by inactive Brandon Hunter. Amir Johnson will get better, and Toronto’s got at least one other optimistic piece in Channing Frye (3.5), in place of Joey Graham (1.3), but none of that helped them this year, and they put up only 22 wins.

Is Ben Gordon the guy to turn things around in San Antonio?

Out west, the regular season champion Spurs (63-19) once again dropped like a rock, but not as far as they have in previous years. San Antonio struggled replacing Tony Parker (9.6) with Loren Woods (0.4), with no replacement at all for Manu (8.8). But they got some wins back with Ben Gordon (4.4) having a good year in place of Beno Udrih (1.3), and have a reason to be optimistic with Monta Ellis (0.5) in place over Ian Mahinmi (0.0). Overall, the Spurs went 49-33, seventh in the conference.

The Mavs also ended up dropping out of the top tier, thanks primarily to the losses of Josh Howard (6.7) and Devin Harris (3.7), who were replaced by James Singleton (2.3) and Trevor Ariza (0.9), respectively. Shane Battier (9.1) replaced DeSagana Diop (4.1), but his impact was more than canceled out when Corey Maggette (3.0) replaced Jason Terry (9.6). Dallas ended up 53-29 and in the fourth spot.

All that movement set up the Grizzlies (49-33) to be our Western Conference champions. Memphis built on what was originally a good-not-great season by adding Michael Redd (10.8) in Mike Miller’s (7.1) place, then added Pau Gasol (12.0) in place of Shane Battier (9.1). If you remember, Memphis also actually had Pau on their roster, but he’s replaced by Mehmet Okur (9.3), who had a very good season. Four more wins came via Rasual Butler and Steven Hunter, who replaced Ryan Humphrey and Raul Lopez, respectively. Memphis finished 58-24.

The Heat (52-30) actually got a little better, mostly through playing LeBron (16.3) over D-Wade (14.4) and Luther Head (3.5) over Wayne Simien (0.8). Andris Biedrins (2.9) also proved a great upgrade over Dorell Wright (0.2) and Luke Walton added two wins in place of inactive Jerome Beasley, but Miami lost 6.2 wins without Shaq. The Heat went 54-28 but because of our rules, will not still get back to the Finals.

That honor instead falls to the Pistons (64-18), this year’s superteam. Detroit didn’t make many moves overall, only adding Ryan Gomes (3.1) and Wayne Simien (0.8) over Jason Maxiell (-0.2) and Amir Johnson (0.2) in the draft. The guys in place simply did better. No better example there than Carmelo (9.4), who played in place of Darko (0.0). Andrei Kirilenko (7.9) outplayed Richard Hamilton (7.6) just barely, and all the gains offset the loss of Tayshaun Prince (7.0), who was replaced by Jannero Pargo (-0.1).

Detroit cruised to a 74-8 record, our third consecutive year with a 70-win team. Memphis sends out a Pau-Redd-Okur-Eddie Jones-Lorenzen Wright team to face Detroit’s Billups-Ben Wallace-Rasheed Wallace-Carmelo-AK47 unit, and the Pistons make pretty quick work of the Grizz in the finals.

They end up protecting young Carmelo and exposing Chauncey Billups, Andrei Kirilenko and the rest of their roster. Will that come back to bite them? We’ll see!

STANDINGS

West
1. Grizzlies 58-24
2. Warriors 56-26
3. Clippers 54-28
4. Mavs 53-29
5. Hornets 52-30
6. Nuggets 51-31
7. Spurs 49-33
8. Lakers 46-36
9. Suns 46-36
10. Rockets 40-42
11. Sonics 38-44
12. Wolves 37-45
13. Kings 36-46
14. Jazz 33-49
15. Blazers 30-52

East
1. Pistons 74-8
2. Nets 57-25
3. Heat 54-28
4. Pacers 46-36
5. Celtics 45-37
6. Knicks 44-38
7. Sixers 42-40
8. Cavs 42-40
9. Magic 37-45
10. Wizards 36-46
11. Bulls 33-49
12. Bucks 26-56
13. Hawks 25-57
14. Bobcats 23-59
15. Raptors 22-60

NBA Finals:
Pistons over Grizzlies

Pistons protect Carmelo Anthony
Best player available: Chauncey Billups

The 2005 NBA Re-Draft: Birth of a Point GOD

The 2005 NBA Draft lottery was the type of lottery that lottery lovers love, and lottery haters hate. Spots 13 through 7 went chalk, but none — not one — of the top six teams picked where they were scheduled to.

No team benefited more from the madness than the Bucks, who were in sixth position but won the rights to the top pick and a shot at Andrew Bogut. The team slated for the first pick, the Hawks, were bumped back to 2 and grabbed Marvin Williams, which isn’t as bad a pick as it sounds.

Of course, in the real-life iteration, only one pick really mattered. That was the fourth pick, where the Hornets, holders of the second slot in the lottery, grabbed Chris Paul. He’s not the only All-Star in this draft, but he’s probably the only Hall of Famer, and he will become easily the biggest difference-maker.

That means he won’t last until the fourth pick; he’s going first. So who had the sixth-worst record (and won rights to the top pick)? The Blazers! It’s going to be exciting for the city of Portland to see Chris Paul play, maybe even turning around the entire franc — wait, sorry? They traded away this pick already? They got something good, right? Three first round picks, eh? That’s not bad, who did they pick? Joel Freeland, Jarrett Jack and Martell Webster, you say? Hm, well, maybe they can do better this time around? They’re losing CP3, so I hope to God they do.

CP3 ends up in Utah, righting another fan base’s “What If?” draft scenario.

Back on track!

The trades mean the Jazz will pick first. The second pick  belongs to the team with the worst record. That’ll be the Bobcats, who might have chance to form a dynamic 1-2 with someone next to Dwight Howard. After that, it’s the Bucks, Trail Blazers (acquired in that pick swap with the Jazz), Hawks and Raptors.

It’s a high bar to clear for the defending champs to lose someone better than Chris Paul. And the Nuggets can’t offer anyone that good; in fact, even protected Amar’e Stoudemire wouldn’t pay as a replacement pick for CP3. The Nuggets actually left unprotected Shaq, who’s got some wins left in him, but Paul has lots and lots more.

As always, remember which picks are going to be traded!

• The Suns packaged their original first rounder (Nate Robinson) with Quentin Richardson and sent them to the Knicks for a second-rounder and Kurt Thomas.
• The Blazers sent their second first-rounder (Linas Kleiza) and a second-rounder (Ricky Sanchez) to the Nuggets for their first-rounder (Jarrett Jack).
• Notable only because of who the original pick was, the Magic took Marcin Gortat at No. 57 and sent him to the Suns in exchange for cash. That’s back-to-back very good centers drafted by Orlando and traded (add Gortat to Anderson Varejao last year).

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Utah Jazz: PG Chris Paul, Wake Forest (PG Deron Williams, Illinois)
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Deron Williams (PG Raymond Felton, North Carolina)
3. Milwaukee Bucks: PF David Lee, Florida (C Andrew Bogut, Utah)
4. Portland Trail Blazers: C Marcin Gortat, Poland (SF Martell Webster, high school)
5. Atlanta Hawks: PF Marvin Williams, North Carolina (Marvin Williams!)
6. Toronto Raptors: PF Amir Johnson, high school (PF Charlie Villanueva, UConn)
7. New York Knicks: Andrew Bogut (PF Channing Frye, Arizona)
8. Orlando Magic: SF Danny Granger, New Mexico (PF Fran Vazquez, Spain)
9. New Orleans Hornets: PG Lou Williams, high school (Chris Paul)
10. Charlotte Bobcats: PF Brandon Bass, LSU (PF Sean May, North Carolina)
11. San Antonio Spurs: SG Monta Ellis, high school (C Ian Mahinmi, France)
12. Memphis Grizzlies: PF Ersan Ilyasova, Turkey (PF Hakim Warrick, Syracuse)
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: C Andrew Bynum, high school (SG Rashad McCants, North Carolina)
14. Sacramento Kings: Raymond Felton (SG Francisco Garcia, Louisville)
15. Toronto Raptors: Channing Frye (SF Joey Graham, Oklahoma State)
16. Boston Celtics: SG Jarrett Jack, Georgia Tech (SG Gerald Green, high school)
17. Denver Nuggets: PF Chuck Hayes, Purdue (SF Julius Hodge, North Carolina State)
18. Los Angeles Clippers: PG Nate Robinson, Washington (PF Yaroslav Korolev, Russia)
19. New York Knicks: SF C.J. Miles, high school (David Lee)
20. Indiana Pacers: Martell Webster (Danny Granger)
21. New Jersey Nets: Charlie Villanueva (SG Antoine Wright, Texas A&M)
22. Phoenix Suns: Ian Mahinmi (Nate Robinson)
23. Portland Trail Blazers: Hakim Warrick (SF Linas Kleiza, Missouri)
24. Los Angeles Lakers: PF Jason Maxiell, Cincinnati (Andrew Bynum)
25. Detroit Pistons: SF Ryan Gomes, Providence (Jason Maxiell)
26. Seattle SuperSonics: C Ronny Turiaf, Gonzaga (C Johan Petro, France)
27. Golden State Warriors: PF Andray Blatche, high school (PF Ike Diogu, Arizona State)
28. Houston Rockets: Francisco Garcia (SG Luther Head, Illinois)
29. Miami Heat: Luther Head (PF Wayne Simien, Kansas)
30. Denver Nuggets: Gerald Green (Jarrett Jack)

Round 2

1. LAC: Linas Kleiza (PG Daniel Ewing, Duke)
2. UTA: SF Kelenna Azubuike, Kentucky (C.J. Miles)
3. ATL: Joey Graham (PG Salim Stoudamire, Arizona)
4. MIL: SG Alan Anderson, Michigan State (Ersan Ilyasova)
5. ORL: SG Will Bynum, Georgia Tech (PG Travis Diener, Marquette)
6. POR: Ike Diogu (PF Ricky Sanchez, Spain)
7. LAL: Travis Diener (Ronny Turiaf)
8. TOR: Johan Petro (SG Roko Ukic, Croatia)
9. NOH: Rashad McCants (Brandon Bass)
10. ORL: PG John Lucas III, Oklahoma State (C Marynas Andriuskevicius, Lithuania)
11. ATL: SG Von Wafer, Florida State (G Cenk Aykol, Turkey)
12. SEA: Antoine Wright (SF Mickael Gelabale, France)
13. MIN: Mickael Gelabale (SG Bracey Wright, Indiana)
14. BOS: Sean May (Ryan Gomes)
15. PHI: C Lawrence Roberts, Mississippi State (Lou Williams)
16. BOS: Salim Stoudamire (SG Orien Greene, Louisiana Lafayette)
17. WAS: PF Shavlik Randolph, Duke (Andray Blatche)
18. GSW: SF Stephen Graham, Oklahoma State (Monta Ellis)
19. DET: Wayne Simien (Amir Johnson)
20. IND: Daniel Ewing (F Erazem Lorbek, Slovenia)
21. NJN: PF Chris Taft, Pittsburgh (C Mile Ilic, Serbia)
22. UTA: Bracey Wright (C Robert Whaley, Walsh)
23. PHX: SG Dijon Thompson, UCLA (Marcin Gortat)
24. LAL: PG Andre Owens, Houston (Von Wafer)
25. DET: C Uros Slokar, Slovenia (G Alex Acker, Pepperdine)
26. SEA: Julius Hodge (Lawrence Roberts)
27. GSW: Marynas Andriuskevicius (Chris Taft)
28. NYK: Robert Whaley (Dijon Thompson)
29. TOR: Yaroslav Korolev (Uros Slokar)
30. DEN: PF Randolph Morris, Kentucky (F Axel Hervelle, Belgium)

Biggest winner: Toronto Raptors

There were lots of bad picks to correct in 2005.

I do think the Jazz are a big winner here, but going from the second-best player to the best, even if it’s from Deron Williams to Chris Paul, isn’t all that big of a jump. The real gap between Paul and Williams won’t happen for close to a decade, and by that time Williams’s rights will be long gone from Utah.

That said, I love what Toronto has turned this draft into. They originally went out and got Villanueva and Joey Graham, players 21 and 33, with picks 7 and 16. That’s not awful value, but it’s not good. By instead grabbing Amir Johnson and Channing Frye, the Raps get much better. And turning Roko Ukic and Uros Slokar into Johan Petro and Yaroslav Korolev is a pretty good second-round outcome, as well.

Speaking of Korolev, honorable mention has to point out the Clippers, who took Korolev at 12 and pulled off one of the worst first-round picks. Anyone is an upgrade there, including Nate Robinson.

The Magic also merit consideration, having swapped Fran Vazquez for Danny Granger and later getting Will Bynum instead of Travis Diener, but they will lose out on Marcin Gortat, the 57th pick they acquired from Phoenix. I’m also a fan of Wolves getting Andrew Bynum instead of Rashad McCants, and of the Bobcats turning Ray Felton and Sean May into Deron Williams and Brandon Bass.

Biggest loser: Los Angeles Lakers

As I just mentioned, the Suns only avoid this dishonor because they traded Gortat to Orlando. The Magic drafted Fran Vazquez in the real-life draft and instead get Danny Granger, a different top-10 guy in this class, so they’re not complete losers.

The Lakers, though, improved so much last year that they picked 14 slots later, and unfortunately for them, they made a good pick the first time around. Swapping Andrew Bynum for Jason Maxiell isn’t catastrophic, but it will harm a couple of LA teams down the road.

I think you’ve also got to look at the Warriors in this category, who lose Monta Ellis in the second round and end up with Stephen Graham. Luckily they made a semi-positive move in round one, losing Ike Diogu and picking up Andray Blatche.

Three other round-two steals that are no more: the Pistons took Amir Johnson at 56, a pick that’s now Wayne Simien. And the Sixers grabbed Lou Williams at 45 and will now get Lawrence Roberts instead. Something tells me he won’t blossom into a Sixth Man of the Year type. The Bucks also grabbed Ersan Ilyasova at 36, a pick that instead is Alan Anderson, a journeyman who originally went undrafted.

The 2004-2005 NBA Season: Records were made to be broken

When I started this weird, pointless experiment, I had a basic hypothesis that the league would even out and become more competitive over time.

The logic is relatively sound: If teams eliminated their biggest draft misses, and replaced them with hits (or at least something closer to “hits”), and likewise successful teams weren’t able to get crazy steals late, in theory the distribution of good players would be more even.

I don’t know if two seasons is enough to say that theory is dead, but at this point I’m starting to lean that way. You’ll see why.

To recap the actual 2004-2005 season: The Spurs won another ring, again behind a big season from each of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Pistons, now with Rasheed Wallace, came up just short in the finals.

Steve Nash, in year one with the Suns, won MVP while leading Phoenix to 62 wins, most in the West. And Emeka Okafor, unbelievably, won rookie of the year for a horrible Bobcats team in its first year of existence.

So how were the Bobcats (18-64) in year one of life in a redrafted universe? Even worse! Dwight Howard (7.3) was an upgrade over Okafor (4.0), but his positive influence was disrupted by a few losses. Namely, the inactive Mike Smith did little to cut into Jason Hart’s (4.8) absence. Gerald Wallace (2.4) was gone, replaced by Jarron Collins (1.1), Primoz Brezec (4.9) was replaced by DerMarr Johnson (3.2) and Jason Kapono (1.3) was replaced by Josh Powell (0.0). Charlotte’s roster was basically D12, Brevin Knight, 35-year-old Steve Smith, Bostjan Nachbar and DerMarr Johnson, with Jarron Collins off the bench, and they finished 14-68, dead last in the league (but barely)!

Pop’s getting tired of this same old song and dance. 

The Spurs (59-23) were, predictably, the biggest losers in the league. Again, Loren Woods (0.7) was nowhere near a quality replacement for Tony Parker (8.1) and Manu Ginobili’s 11 WS went unreplaced. A positive in San Antonio was Ben Gordon (3.5), who replaced Beno Udrih’s 3.1 WS and helped steady the dropoff. Overall, San Antonio netted -17.6 wins, dropping to 41-41 and 12th in the West behind that Duncan-Bowen-Brent Barry-Horry-Rasho-Gordon core.

The Suns (60-22) registered the next biggest drop off thanks to missing several of the pieces that vaulted Steve Nash to MVP. Amar’e Stoudemire (14.6) was replaced by Yao Ming (10.7), Shawn Marion (12.5) gave way to Richard Hamilton (7.4) and Joe Johnson (7.6) was replaced by Samuel Dalembert (3.9), all good pieces but statistical downgrades. Quentin Richardson (5.8) was also no longer a Sun, replaced by Jake Voskuhl (0.6). Even with Brendan Haywood (5.2) replacing Steven Hunter (2.6) and Reggie Evans (3.8) taking over for Casey Jacobsen (1.1), the Nash-D’Antoni Suns dropped all the way to 48-34, eighth in the West.

A more beneficial drop off took place in Utah, where the Jazz (26-56) fell all the way to 16 wins and the hunt for the top pick in 2005. The change happened largely because Jeryl Sasser (DNP) was no replacement for Mehmet Okur (7.0), Utah’s big free agent prize that year. The Jazz also struggled with Juan Carlos Navarro (0.0) replacing free agent Carlos Boozer (4.1), Lee Nailon (2.2) replacing Andrei Kirilenko (5.5) and Tim James (DNP) replacing Gordan Giricek (1.8). Without Steve Francis (6.2) stepping in for newly acquired Aleksander Radojevic (-0.3), Utah could have ended in single-digit-win territory.

Utah and Charlotte were at the bottom of the league, but the other spots near the bottom will be valuable in an upcoming lottery that gets pretty weird. So who rose to the bottom?

The Bucks (30-52), ended up fourth-worst in the league, again feeling the sting from replacing Michael Redd (6.2) with Chris Porter (DNP). They also dropped wins thanks to the absences of Dan Gadzuric (5.2), replaced by Kareem Rush (0.1); Desmond Mason (4.3), replaced by Etan Thomas (1.6); free agent signing Mo Williams (2.2), replaced by James Lang (0.0); and trade acquisition Zaza Pachulia (2.9), who doesn’t have a replacement. Luckily Mike Miller (7.0) was acquired in a trade rather than Marcus Fizer (0.4) and James Jones (2.5) outplayed an injured T.J. Ford (0.0), cutting into the deficit. Milwaukee ended up 21-61.

The Hawks (13-69 and the original worst team in 2004-05), showed that sometimes improvement can be a bad thing. Atlanta actually got better behind their new draft class of Andre Iguodala (6.6) and Devin Harris (2.7), who took over for Josh Childress (4.6) and Josh Smith (2.4). Chris Kaman (2.1) and Eddie House (1.8) were upgrades over Boris Diaw (0.1) and Jason Collier (0.0). The Hawks netted six more wins, and ended the season at 19-63, somehow the third worst record in the NBA.

Instead of winning titles in San Antonio, Young Manu is a superstar on a mediocre Hornets team.

The biggest net gain belonged to the eventual NBA Champs, so let’s talk about other big winners instead. The Hornets (18-64) played themselves out of the real lottery race behind a strong debut from Josh Childress (4.6), who stepped in for J.R. Smith (0.2). Jason Richardson (5.7) replaced the inactive Kirk Haston, Speedy Claxton (3.7) added value in place of Jamaal Magloire (0.3), and Brian Cardinal (3.5) added wins in place of Courtney Alexander (DNP). The real star for New Orleans, though, was Manu Ginobili (11.0), who replaced an injured Baron Davis (1.7). The only real significant setback in New Orleans was the loss of Dan Dickau (3.5), replaced by Smush Parker (-0.1). New Orleans ended up at 38-44, good for 13th in the West and the ninth spot in the lottery.

Another big gain happened in Oakland, where the Warriors (34-48) played themselves into the thick of the championship race. The success was fueled by consistent improvement across the roster. For example, Kirk Hinrich (7.2) stood in for Mickael Pietrus (2.1), Tony Allen (2.7) played for Andris Biedrins (1.2), Joe Johnson (7.6) took Jason Richardson’s (5.7) spot and Luke Ridnour (5.4) replaced Zarko Cabarkapa (1.2). The win increase was also boosted by a couple of guys standing in for inactive players: Andres Nocioni (2.5) replaced Sean Lampley, and Dan Dickau (3.5) took over for Steve Logan. Golden State ended up at 54-28, third in the West.

Another big turnaround to note: With Shaq (11.0) off the books after his trade to Miami, the Lakers (34-48) finally righted the ship. Matt Bonner (4.2) added wins in place of Brian Cook (2.0), and the haul for Shaq got even better with Jason Terry and Drew Gooden (17 WS total) replacing Lamar Odom and Caron Butler (10 WS total). Two more big jumps happened with Fred Jones (4.8) replacing Kareem Rush (-0.2) and Kenyon Martin (5.3) replacing Chris Mihm (3.6). The Lakers rose to 50-32, fifth in the West.

Speaking of Shaq, the Heat (59-23) rode him and D-Wade in real life to the top regular season spot in the East. Even after losing his 11 WS in our universe without a replacement, the Heat added wins behind LeBron James (14.3) replacing Wade (11.0) and Udonis Haslem (9.2) replacing Qyntel Woods (0.0). Miami finished 61-21, still tops out East.

Their foes in the real-life conference finals still made it that far. The Pistons (54-28) lost only four wins thanks to good players coming and good players going. For example, Carmelo (4.9) filled in for Darko (-0.2), and Marquis Daniels (2.5) played in place of Carlos Delfino (0.5). But those gains were offset by losing Tayshaun Prince (9.4) in favor of Jannero Pargo (0.2) and Richard Hamilton (7.4) being replaced by Andrei Kirilenko (5.5). The Pistons finished 50-32, and ultimately lost the conference finals to Miami.

And how about the defending champs? Well, the Wolves (44-38) missed the real-life playoffs and started a long and frustrating couple of years for Kevin Garnett (16.1), leading to his eventual trade. After big seasons en route to the Finals, Lamar Odom (4.7) cooled off in relief of Wally Szczerbiak (7.3) and James Posey (2.3) was nowhere near as good in place of the inactive William Avery. In one positive note, the Wolves replaced Eddie Griffin (3.2) with a young Zach Randolph (3.1). His impact wasn’t felt this year, but will be later on. But the new Wolves finished 43-39 in 2005, down to 10th in the West.

Amar’e was the best player on the best team in 2005. 

With the Spurs, Suns and Wolves out of the way, the West belonged to the Nuggets. Denver went 49-33 in real life, and built on that total with a series of big leaps forward. Nobody made a bigger splash than Amar’e Stoudemire (14.6), who had a huge season in place of Nik Tskitishvili (-0.4). Denver also added another big inside weapon with Shaq (11.0) in place of DerMarr Johnson (3.2), a free agent acquisition. In year two, Chris Bosh (6.8) was an even bigger upgrade over Carmelo (4.9).

In all, the Nuggets netted 25 new wins, finishing 74-8 and ending up your eventual NBA Champions. And art imitates life, as LeBron is already failing to win championships! Would people blame him for failing to carry a team past Bosh, Amar’e, Shaq, Baron Davis and Caron Butler in his second year? Feels like a probably.

So, that’s two years with teams having more than 72 wins. Will the crazy imbalances slow down as we get more re-drafting behind us? Stay tuned!

Final standings:

East
1. Heat 61-21
2. Pistons 50-32
3. Bulls 49-33
4. Nets 48-34
5. Pacers 48-34
6. Wizards 45-37
7. Celtics 45-37
8. Sixers 44-38
9. Cavs 40-42
10. Magic 35-47
11. Knicks 33-49
12. Raptors 29-53
13. Bucks 21-61
14. Hawks 19-63
15. Bobcats 14-68

West
1. Nuggets 74-8
2. Rockets 55-27
3. Warriors 54-28
4. Sonics 53-29
5. Lakers 50-32
6. Mavs 50-32
7. Clippers 49-33
8. Suns 48-34
9. Kings 45-37
10. Wolves 43-39
11. Grizzlies 43-39
12. Spurs 41-41
13. Hornets 38-44
14. Blazers 31-51
15. Jazz 16-66

NBA Finals:

Nuggets over Heat

Protected: Chris Bosh

Best Unprotected Player: Amar’e Stoudemire

 

The 2004 NBA Re-Draft: Starting the Bobs off right

The 2004 NBA Draft brought us the beginnings of the youngest NBA team, then known as the Charlotte Bobcats.

If you’ve forgotten, Charlotte was given the fourth pick in the draft as an expansion club, but worked out a trade with the Clippers and ended up with the second pick. (If you were wondering, the pick swap also included Charlotte agreeing to select Predrag Drobnjak in the expansion draft).

Had this happened, things could have turned out a lot differently in Charlotte. 

In our re-draft universe, the pick that L.A. ended up sending to Charlotte ended up being first overall, while the Clippers still picked fourth. One major thing that accomplishes, at least for the Bobcats, is a chance to start their franchise off on the right foot, which they really didn’t do by selecting Emeka Okafor, a good but injury-plagued center from Connecticut. Their redraft choice essentially comes down to Dwight Howard vs. Lamar Odom, the best unprotected player from the defending champion Minnesota Timberwolves. No great dilemma there.

Meanwhile, the Bucks were the big winners/losers of the lottery, jumping from fifth into the second slot. Why losers? They traded this pick to the Nuggets in 2001, who then traded it to the Pistons for Rodney White in 2002. Detroit then turned around and traded the pick, Bobby Sura and Zeljko Rebraca to the Hawks in a deal that landed them Rasheed Wallace. So Atlanta, fresh off a 33-49 season, has the second pick and their own pick, No. 8. Clear as mud, right?

Pick 3 belongs to the Sixers, Pick 5 is the Jazz (who dropped two spots in the lottery), Pick 6 is the Wizards, and the rest of the lottery went chalk.

Some trade reminders from 2004:

• Washington used its first pick (then No. 5) on Devin Harris, but shipped him to the Mavs along with Christian Laettner and Jerry Stackhouse, in a deal that made Antawn Jamison a Wizard. The player they take at 6 will end up a Mav.
• The Suns, originally picking seventh, took Luol Deng but traded him to the Bulls for a second-round pick and cash, which seems crazy.
• The Nuggets, originally picking No. 20, took Jameer Nelson but traded him to the Magic for their 2005 first-rounder.
• The Jazz took Pavel Podkolzin with the last of their three first-round picks, but also traded him to Dallas for a future first-rounder. They’ll still trade the third of their first-round picks to Dallas.
• The Nets, originally picking No. 22, took Viktor Khryapa but traded him to the Blazers for Eddie Gill.
• The defending champion Wolves forfeited this year’s first round pick, their third and final first rounder lost as a result of the Joe Smith fiasco.

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Charlotte Bobcats: C Dwight Howard, high school (C Emeka Okafor, UConn)
2. Atlanta Hawks: SF Andre Iguodala, Arizona (SF Josh Childress, Stanford)
3. Philadelphia 76ers: SF Luol Deng, Duke (Andre Iguodala)
4. Los Angeles Clippers: C/F Al Jefferson, high school (PG Shaun Livingston, high school)
5. Utah Jazz: SG Kevin Martin, Western Carolina (PF Kris Humphries, Minnesota)
6. Washington Wizards: SF Trevor Ariza, UCLA (PG Devin Harris, Wisconsin)
7. Orlando Magic: SF Josh Smith, high school (Dwight Howard)
8. Atlanta Hawks: Devin Harris (Josh Smith)
9. Boston Celtics: PG Jameer Nelson, St. Joseph’s (Al Jefferson)
10. Phoenix Suns: C Anderson Varejao, Brazil (Luol Deng)
11. New Jersey Nets: SG J.R. Smith, high school (SG Viktor Khryapa, Russia)
12. Seattle SuperSonics: Emeka Okafor (C Robert Swift, high school)
13. Golden State Warriors: SF Tony Allen, Oklahoma State (C Andris Biedrins, Latvia)
14. San Antonio Spurs: SG Ben Gordon, UConn (PG Beno Udrih, Slovenia)
15. Chicago Bulls: Beno Udrih (Ben Gordon)
16. Miami Heat: Andris Biedrins (SF Dorell Wright, high school)
17. Denver Nuggets: Kris Humphries (Jameer Nelson)
18. Toronto Raptors: Shaun Livingston (C Rafael Araujo, BYU)
19. Los Angeles Lakers: Dorell Wright (SG Sasha Vujacic, Slovenia)
20. New Orleans Hornets: Josh Childress (J.R. Smith)
21. Portland Trail Blazers: PG Chris Duhon, Duke (PG Sebastian Telfair, high school)
22. Boston Celtics: PG Delonte West, St. Joseph’s (Delonte West!)
23. Cleveland Cavaliers: Sasha Vujacic (SF Luke Jackson, Oregon)
24. Utah Jazz: Sebastian Telfair (SG Kirk Snyder, Nevada)
25. Boston Celtics: Kirk Snyder (Tony Allen)
26. Portland Trail Blazers: SG Royal Ivey, Texas (SG Sergei Monia, Russia)
27. Sacramento Kings: PF David Harrison, Colorado (Kevin Martin)
28. Utah Jazz: Viktor Khryapa (C Pavel Podkolzin, Russia)
29. Indiana Pacers: SF Bernard Robinson, Michigan (David Harrison)
30. Minnesota Timberwolves: FORFEITED

Round 2

1. SEA: Robert Swift (G/F Andre Emmett, Texas Tech)
2. ATL: PF Pape Sow, Cal State-Fullerton (SF Donta Smith, Southeast Illinois)
3. SAC: Donta Smith (SG Ricky Minard, Morehead State)
4. LAC: C Pero Antic, Macedonia (PG Lionel Chalmers, Xavier)
5. WAS: SF Damien Wilkins, Georgia (C P.J. Ramos, Puerto Rico)
6. CHA: C Jackie Butler, high school (Bernard Robinson)
7. ORL: SF Justin Reed, Ole Miss (Anderson Varejao)
8. ATL: Luke Jackson (Royal Ivey)
9. BOS: Andre Emmett (Justin Reed)
10. ORL: PG Antonio Burks, Memphis (Antonio Burks!)
11. CHI: C Jackson Vroman, Iowa State (Jackson Vroman!)
12. SEA: P.J. Ramos (SG David Young, N.C. Central)
13. ATL: PG Luis Flores, Manhattan (SF Viktor Sanikidze, Georgia)
14. MEM: Pavel Podkolzin (PF Sergei Lishouk, Ukraine)
15. NJN: PG Vassilis Spanoulis, Greece (SF Christian Drejer, Denmark)
16. MIA: Sergei Monia (Pape Sow)
17. SAS: Lionel Chalmers (SG Romain Sato, Xavier)
18. CHI: C Ha-Seung Jin, Korea (Chris Duhon)
19. LAL: Rafael Araujo (PF Marcus Douthit, Providence)
20. NOH: SF Matt Freije, Vanderbilt (SG Tim Pickett, Florida State)
21. POR: No pick (Ha-Seung Jin)
22. MIA: No pick (Matt Freije)
23. TOR: No pick (PF Albert Miralles, Spain)
24. DAL: No pick (Vassilis Spanoulis)
25. DET: No pick (SG Rickey Paulding, Missouri)
26. SAS: No pick (G Sergei Karaulov, Russia)
27. HOU: No pick (Luis Flores)
28. NYK: No pick (Trevor Ariza)
29. IND: No pick (G Rashad Wright, Georgia)
30. MIN: No pick (PG Blake Stepp, Gonzaga)

Biggest winner: Charlotte Bobcats

Emeka Okafor turned into a very good player, but just couldn’t catch a break with his health. For all the criticism lobbed his way, D12 has been a great NBA center for more than a decade and carried a team to the NBA Finals. He’s a huge upgrade.

Definite honorable mention for the Clippers, who also turn a bad-luck player with talent (Shaun Livingston) into Al Jefferson. The Sonics will also benefit greatly from their upgrade of Robert Swift, replaced by Emeka Okafor.

Biggest loser: Orlando Magic

The truth is that not many teams dramatically downgraded their draft classes. The Magic are the default pick here because they lose a generational talent in Dwight Howard and replace him with Josh Smith, the seventh-best player in this (kinda weak) draft, but nowhere near the player Howard is. The Magic also receive a downgrade because they acquired Kris Humphries via trade instead of Jameer Nelson. Their not getting Anderson Varejao at the top of the second round won’t hurt them, since they traded him right away.

I was tempted to say the Knicks are the biggest losers here, since they lost out on Trevor Ariza, but they famously traded him after about a year to…ugh…the Magic. Orlando will get a whole lot of nothing in the Steve Francis trade now, because Ariza didn’t have a corresponding replacement.

And although he doesn’t leap off the page at you, the loss of Chris Duhon is actually kind of a big deal for the Bulls. He was a first-round talent selected 39th. Instead of bringing in him, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng (via trade) and Jackson Vroman, Chicago will now add Ha-Seung Jin, Beno Udrih, Anderson Varejao, and still Vroman, all downgrades (some more than others).

The 2003-2004 NBA Season: The King…doesn’t matter?

2003 marks an NBA turning point in several ways.

For one, the class of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony made an instant splash as rookies. Two of those four led their teams to the playoffs in real life, and the other two came within three games.

In re-draft land, this is the year that free agency really starts affecting things. As I laid out in my very first post, I understand that free agent and trade decisions can’t be perfectly reconfigured for my new hypothetical universe. And so, I’m treating every replacement player as if they’d make the same decision as the original player. A 2003 example is DerMarr Johnson, who moved from the Hawks to the Knicks in free agency. As a result, Shaquille O’Neal, a much better and different player who has replaced DerMarr in my world, will play next season in New York. And wherever DerMarr goes (and where his rights eventually die), Shaq will go too.

In the real world, the Wolves took over the West, winning 58 games behind an MVP season from Kevin Garnett. The Lakers still emerged from the conference, but were outclassed by the pre-Sheed, Billups-Wallace-Hamilton-Prince Pistons in the finals. Since two of those players were added during what I’ve dubbed the re-draft era, we’ll see a different Pistons team for sure.

Gauging the ’03-’04 re-draft season, let’s start with those all-world rookies and their landing spots.

The Cavs are missing LeBron, and it…doesn’t matter. The team (originally 35-47) actually registered one of the biggest improvements in the league, despite trading James (5.1) for Dwyane Wade (4.6). The big jump came from adding Shane Battier (5.9) over DeSagana Diop (1.0), Kenyon Martin (6.7) over Chris Mihm (0.9), Ron Artest (8.0) over Trajan Langdon (DNP), Jamal Crawford (4.1) over Darius Miles (0.6) and Stromile Swift (4.8) over Mateen Cleaves (0.0). With a Wade-KMart-Artest-Battier-Big Z starting 5 and Swift, Crawford and Kevin Ollie off the bench, Cleveland goes 52-30 and ends up fourth in the east.

The Heat, LeBron’s new first team, actually got a little worse, although it wasn’t his fault. Bron added half a win over Wade, and Luke Walton (1.6) was a big bump over Jerome Beasley (0.0), but the loss of Rasual Butler (1.6) and the loss of Loren Woods (1.1) in favor of Omar Cook (-0.2) really sunk the Heat. The team, originally 42-40, dropped a win to end up 41-41 and seventh in the east, despite fielding a recognizable Eddie Jones-Rafer Alston-LeBron-Jason Terry-Brian Grant lineup.

Andrei Kirilenko’s move from Utah to Detroit has torpedoed the Jazz and buoyed the Pistons as a major contender. 

The Nuggets (43-39) added a better long-term piece in Chris Bosh (6.2) over Carmelo Anthony (6.1) but got a little worse in ’03-04. The loss of Nene (6.1) in favor of Caron Butler (2.1) was a killer, while the swaps of Andre Miller (8.8) for Baron Davis (7.5) and Francisco Elson (1.8) for Ryan Robertson (DNP) and Rodney White (1.8) for Gerald Wallace (0.4) also chipped away at Denver’s win total. Luckily Amar’e Stoudemire (4.4) was around to replace Nik Tskitishvili (-0.1) and boost the team’s final record to 40-42, eighth in the West. That Bosh-Amar’e-Baron Davis-Gerald Wallace-Caron Butler group feels like a potential contender down the road….

And in Detroit, the Pistons (54-28) went from really good to…really good. Funny enough, the Pistons lost major pieces to their championship run in Tayshaun Prince (7.5) and Mehmet Okur (5.9) and replaced them with basically no contribution from Jannero Pargo (0.1) and Jeryl Sasser (DNP). Lucky for them, their original pick of Darko Milicic (-0.2) has turned into Carmelo Anthony (6.1), a high-impact rookie and probably the ROY runner-up after Chris Bosh. Richard Hamilton (8.1) was supplanted by Andrei Kirilenko (11.6), probably the team’s MVP, even over Chauncey Billups. The Pistons netted a fraction of a negative win but ended up at the same 54-28 record, good for third in the east.

So who were the big movers? The biggest loser was … stop me if you’ve heard this one … the Spurs (57-25). San Antonio dropped 6.4 wins going from Tony Parker (7.5) to Loren Woods (1.1). They lost another 9.1 wins from Manu Ginobili’s unfilled spot. Then, to make it worse, they lost 6.4 wins going from Hedo Turkoglu (6.7) to Keyon Dooling (0.3). Luckily for them, Mark Madsen (2.7) was there to take Erick Barkley’s place (DNP) next to Tim Duncan, Rasho Nesterovic, Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry on a team that struggled to a 38-44 finish, ninth in the West.

The Jazz (42-40) nearly matched San Antonio’s drop. The absence of Jarron Collins (4.2), and trade of Andrei Kirilenko (11.6) for Lee Nailon (0.2) cost them 16 wins alone, and incremental losses of guys like DeShawn Stevenson (1.5) being replaced by Jake Tsakalidis (0.9) and Scott Padgett (1.9) swapped out for Jon Bender (0.5) added up to a -17.8-win net for Utah and a 24-58 finish, third-worst in the league.

The biggest net gain belonged to the Knicks (39-43), about half of which came from losing DerMarr Johnson (0.4) and adding Shaq (9.9) in his place. Believe it or not, Jeff Foster (8.3) replacing Frederic Weis (DNP) was almost as important in raising New York’s win total to 58, good for second in the East.

The biggest jump in wins belonged to the NBA Champs (a first!), but I’ll wait to share so we can avoid spoilers.

The lottery tankathon really came down to four teams: The Clippers (28-54), Sixers (33-49), Bucks (41-41) and Jazz, whom we’ve already talked about.

Milwaukee ended up with the fourth-worst record in the league, 28-54, as the result of a 13-win drop in the standings. That was fueled mostly by the loss of Michael Redd (9.7), a budding superstar with no replacement in Chris Porter (DNP).

Philadelphia and LA2 duked it out for the right to win the 2004 draft lottery, and ultimately the Sixers fell short. They dropped 11 wins and finished 22-60 by swapping Samuel Dalembert (6.9) for Eddie Griffin (0.0), who spent the season in rehab, and also replaced Kenny Thomas (6.6) with Calvin Booth (2.2).

But the Clippers were the worst team overall, dropping eight games and finishing 20-62 thanks mostly to the loss of Corey Maggette (8.6), replaced by Wally Szczerbiak (1.6). Shawn Marion (9.1) filled in ably for Elton Brand (9.7), but even the real-life Clippers had a pretty bare cupboard after their top two players.

The real-life NBA Finals rep in the East was the Pistons, but the regular season belonged to the Pacers (61-21). The re-draft-era Pacers were able to hold on to that title despite dropping off a bit. Their biggest losses — from dropping Jeff Foster for Francisco Elson (1.8), Jamaal Tinsley (4.4) for Eddy Curry (3.0), and Ron Artest (8.0) for Kenny Thomas (6.6) — were nearly offset by one big change, swapping Jonathan Bender (0.5) out for Andre Miller (8.8). Miller will prove to be a valuable piece for several teams down the road.

The Pacers, led by a Jermaine O’Neal-Reggie Miller-Andre Miller-Kenny Thomas-Al Harrington starting five and Eddy Curry and Anthony Johnson off the bench, go 59-23 and represent the east in the NBA Finals.

Remember when I said the biggest jump belonged to the NBA champs? Well, it also belonged to your original West regular season champs, the Wolves. That’s right, the Wolves didn’t just retain their conference lead — they got even better. And the funny thing is that you wouldn’t even expect them to stand out, given the pieces they got and lost.

Minnesota was led in ’02-’03 by Kevin Garnett (18.3) and Sam Cassell (12.1), two pre-re-draft vets. Our universe added two amazing pieces next to them — Lamar Odom (8.4) in the place of Wally Szczerbiak (1.6) and a breakout season from James Posey (10.0) in the spot where William Avery (DNP) would have gone. Even with the loss of Trenton Hassell (4.0), replaced by Alton Ford (0.1), the Wolves net 18.3 new wins and finish at an NBA-record 76-6. Yeah…that’s crazy.

This Wolves trio is still in place to rule the West…and they’ve got fun new teammates. 

Predictably enough, the defending champs protect The Big Ticket and leave Lamar Odom as the most valuable available player. Will he prove more valuable than the best incoming rookie? Stay tuned.

Final standings:

East
1. Pacers 59-23
2. Knicks 58-24
3. Pistons 54-28
4. Cavs 52-30
5. Hornets 49-33
6. Raptors 45-37
7. Heat 41-41
8. Bulls 36-46
9. Nets 35-47
10. Celtics 33-49
11. Hawks 33-49
12. Magic 31-51
13. Wizards 30-52
14. Bucks 28-54
15. Sixers 22-60

West
1. Wolves 76-6
2. Kings 56-26
3. Grizzlies 55-27
4. Rockets 51-31
5. Mavs 47-35
6. Blazers 47-35
7. Lakers 45-37
8. Nuggets 40-42
9. Spurs 38-44
10. Warriors 37-45
11. Sonics 37-45
12. Suns 36-46
13. Jazz 24-58
14. Clippers 20-62

NBA Finals:

Wolves over Pacers

Protected: Kevin Garnett

Best Unprotected Player: Lamar Odom

The 2003 NBA Re-Draft: The Re-Distribution of Wealth

The 2003 NBA Draft is most likely the most top-heavy of my lifetime. The players in the top four are MVPs, Finals MVPs, All-Stars and sports icons. And they’ll all end up on different teams.

In kind of a fun twist, the draft drops off pretty dramatically after the fourth spot. Unless you consider David West or Kyle Korver to be Carmelo Anthony’s equal. Which, yeah.

A grand total of zero of these guys ended up on their original teams, which is sure to send shockwaves through the league.

2003 is the year it all turned around in Cleveland. The Cavs, who were favored to win the lottery, actually did so. They drafted Akron native LeBron James and the rest is history. Well, that’s not happening a second time.

Instead, the lottery pole-sitters are the Miami Heat, another eventual LBJ employer. And it’s probably not worth even teasing that they’re not going to pick him.

Cleveland didn’t completely miss out, however. The real-life lottery catapulted the Grizzlies into the second slot of the draft (although their pick was owned by the Pistons). In this world, that is the Cavs!

The rest of the lottery plays out as scripted, with the Nuggets and Pistons getting a chance at a franchise talent and Raptors, Grizzlies, Warriors and Nets getting a chance at a just-good player.

The only real trade to note is that the Celtics sent their two first-rounders to Memphis for their two first-rounders, which in real life meant Kendrick Perkins and Marcus Banks went to Boston for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones.

Oh, and in case you didn’t assume this, NO THE HEAT DID NOT CONSIDER TAKING PEJA STOJAKOVIC INSTEAD OF LEBRON JAMES.

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Miami Heat: SF LeBron James, high school (SG Dwyane Wade, Marquette)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Dwyane Wade (LeBron James)
3. Denver Nuggets: PF Chris Bosh, Georgia Tech (SF Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse)
4. Detroit Pistons: Carmelo Anthony (PF Darko Milicic, Serbia)
5. Toronto Raptors: PF David West, Xavier (Chris Bosh)
6. Memphis Grizzlies: SG Kyle Korver, Creighton (PG Marcus Banks, UNLV)
7. Golden State Warriors: PG Kirk Hinrich, Kansas (SF Mickael Pietrus, France)
8. New Jersey Nets: C Zaza Pachulia, Georgia (SG Zoran Planinic, Croatia)
9. Los Angeles Clippers: PF Nick Collison, Kansas (C Chris Kaman, Central Michigan)
10. Seattle SuperSonics: PG Mo Williams, Alabama (Nick Collison)
11. Los Angeles Lakers: SF Matt Bonner, Florida (PF Brian Cook, Illinois)
12. Washington Wizards: SF Josh Howard, Wake Forest (SF Jarvis Hayes, Georgia)
13. New York Knicks: PG Leandro Barbosa, Brazil (PF Michael Sweetney, Georgetown)
14. Phoenix Suns: PG Luke Ridnour, Oregon (SF Zarko Cabarkapa, Serbia)
15. Chicago Bulls: PG Steve Blake, Maryland (Kirk Hinrich)
16. Seattle SuperSonics: PG Jose Calderon, Spain (Luke Ridnour)
17. Utah Jazz: C Kendrick Perkins, high school (SG Sasha Pavolvic, Serbia)
18. Milwaukee Bucks: SF James Jones, Miami (PG T.J. Ford, Texas)
19. Atlanta Hawks: Chris Kaman (PF Boris Diaw, France)
20. San Antonio Spurs: SG Carlos Delfino, Argentina (Leandro Barbosa)
21. Detroit Pistons: SG Marquis Daniels, Auburn (Carlos Delfino)
22. Portland Trail Blazers: SG Keith Bogans, Kentucky (SF Travis Outlaw, high school)
23. Boston Celtics: Mickael Pietrus (PG Troy Bell, Boston College)
24. Boston Celtics: T.J. Ford (SG Dahntay Jones, Duke)
25. New Orleans Hornets: SG Matt Carroll, Notre Dame (David West)
26. Orlando Magic: SG Quinton Ross, SMU (SF Reece Gaines, Louisville)
27. Minnesota Timberwolves: C Earl Barron, Memphis (PF Ndudi Ebi, high school)
28. Dallas Mavericks: SF James Singleton, Murray State (Josh Howard)
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Travis Outlaw (Kendrick Perkins)

Round 2

1. MIA: PF Luke Walton, Arizona (PF Jerome Beasley, North Dakota)
2. NYK: SG Willie Green (PF Maciej Lampe, Poland)
3. MIL: SF Jason Kapono, UCLA (PF Szymon Szewczyk, Poland)
4. LAL: Jarvis Hayes (Luke Walton)
5. HOU: Brian Cook (PF Malick Badiane, Senegal)
6. CLE: PF Josh Powell, NC State (Jason Kapono)
7. GSW: Dahntay Jones (PG Derrick Zimmerman, Mississippi State)
8. NJN: Mike Sweetney (Kyle Korver)
9. LAC: Darko Milicic (C Sofoklis Schortsanitis, Greece)
10. MIL: Sasha Pavlovic (Keith Bogans)
11. TOR: Marcus Banks (C Remon van de Hare, Netherlands)
12. WAS: Zoran Planinic (Steve Blake)
13. CHI: Zarko Cabarkapa (PF Mario Austin, Mississippi State)
14. CHI: PF Brandon Hunter, Ohio (Matt Bonner)
15. NYK: SG Travis Hansen, BYU (C Slavko Vranes, Serbia)
16. SEA: Ndudi Ebi (Willie Green)
17. UTA: C James Lang, high school (Mo Williams)
18. ATL: Jerome Beasley (Travis Hansen)
19. IND: Slavko Vranes (James Jones)
20. DET: Derrick Zimmerman (C Andrea Glyniadakis, Greece)
21. CHI: Troy Bell (PF Tommy Smith, Arizona State)
22. POR: Maciej Lampe (C Nedzad Sinanovic, Bosnia)
23. DEN: Andrea Glyniadakis (SG Sani Becirovic, Serbia)
24. PHI: Reece Gaines (PG Paccelis Morlende, France)
25. NOH: No pick (James Lang)
26. ORL: No pick (Zaza Pachulia)
27. MIN: No pick (PF Rick Rickert, Minnesota)
28. DAL: No pick (C Xue Yuyang, China)
29. BOS: No pick (Brandon Hunter)

Biggest winner: Miami Heat

I really hesitate at giving this to Miami. Dwyane Wade carried them to a championship. But replacing him with LeBron is, in most years to come, an upgrade. And after about 2012, the gap will really grow. Replacing Jerome Beasley with the useful Luke Walton is icing on the cake.

Honorable mention to the Pistons, who turn Darko into Melo and Carlos Delfino into Marquis Daniels (a lateral move). The Nets getting Zaza Pachulia instead of Zoran Planinic could also loom large.

Biggest loser: Philadelphia 76ers

 

It was so, so tempting to put the Cavs here, and they’re still in the discussion. There will be a period of time where there is little or no impact in going to D-Wade from LBJ, but the impact will be felt. Losing Jason Kapono and replacing him with Josh Powell is a loss, although not as big a one as it feels.

There are lots of teams who got players nowhere near as good as their original picks. I nearly put the Hornets here, since they lost David West and ended up with Matt Carroll. The Raptors landed West, at the cost of Chris Bosh. Or how about the Jazz, who no longer end up with Mo Williams in round 2, instead drafting James Lang? (They did upgrade from Sasha Pavlovic to Kendrick Perkins in round 1).

But ultimately I chose the Sixers, who didn’t even have an impactful real-life pick in this draft. Instead, they traded for second-rounder Kyle Korver, who had been chosen by the Nets. In the re-draft, that same pick grabbed Mike Sweetney, who will not be a major piece of a winning team like Korver was.