If you’ve been paying close attention up to this point, you’ll notice a disturbing trend in our re-drafted universe: Teams aren’t just winning championships, they’re running away with them. In fact, our last three seasons have seen not only three teams with 70-plus wins, in each year the eventual champion had the best record by at least 13 games. That’s no fun!
Despair not, because for this year at least, that trend has ended. We’ll end up with five teams all within five games of the top record, which is so, so much more fun. Oh, and the lottery will be important! The upcoming draft has, arguably, four franchise-changing players. That means the difference between the fourth and fifth pick could be huge.
So, what happened in the real 2006-2007? More Spurs. San Antonio had the third-best record in the West behind Duncan-Manu-Parker but got to the finals and dismantled young LeBron’s Cavaliers, who had just finished second in the East. Your eventual MVP, Dirk, led the Mavericks to 67 wins, tops in the NBA. And young guns Brandon Roy (the Rookie of the Year) and LaMarcus Aldridge started their regime change in Portland, although the Blazers only won 32 games.
Other top competitors included the Steve Nash-Mike D’Antoni Suns, who fast-breaked their way to 61 wins, and the Pistons, who went 53-29 behind that defensive powerhouse of a lineup.
Let’s mess all that up, shall we? And let’s start, as I like to do, with the teams affected by the top rookies.
The Blazers (32-50) seemed headed for a huge dropoff, losing LMA and Roy, but they had two things working in their favor: 1) Their record wasn’t good to start, and 2) Roy and Aldridge weren’t their eventual all-pro selves as rookies. All told, the Blazers did get worse, thanks to the summation of:
- Swapping Aldridge (3.4) for J.J. Redick (1.7) and
- Roy (4.8) for Ronnie Brewer (1.7)
- Swapping Jarrett Jack (4.8) for Gerald Green (1.6)
- Trading Zach Randolph (5.7) for Jamaal Tinsley (2.8)
- Eduardo Najera (4.8) played well in place of Joel Przyzbilla (0.3)
- Jamal Crawford (3.1) replaced Darius Miles (0.0)
- Rookie Tyrus Thomas (2.2) replaced Sergio Rodriguez (0.9)
All told, Portland dropped only three games and finished 29-53, second-worst in the West and tied for fourth-worst in the league.
And how about Roy and Aldridge’s new teams?
The Bobcats (33-49) were one of the bigger winners of the year thanks to Aldridge taking Adam Morrison’s (-1.5) place alone. Add in:
- Deron Williams (7.2) in place of Ray Felton (2.3)
- Dwight Howard (9.7) in place of Emeka Okafor (7.1)
- Bostjan Nachbar (4.1) for Melvin Ely (-0.2)
- Jarron Collins (1.3) replacing Gerald Wallace (7.7)
Despite losing Wallace, a D12-LMA-Deron-Nachbar-Derek Anderson lineup is good enough for 40-42 and an eighth seed.
The Kings (33-49), despite getting B-Roy (4.8) instead of Quincy Douby (0.0), plummeted in wins. That’s mostly because they were missing Kevin Martin (10.2), who had been replaced by David Harrison (-0.2). Another drop came thanks to Ron Artest (6.7) being replaced by Kenny Thomas (1.2). Roy actually was the best player in Sacramento as a rookie, but was only able to lead a core of him, Mike Bibby, Devin Brown, Ray Felton, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Brad Miller to 21 wins, the worst record in the NBA.
Other big competitors for the most ping-pong balls included the Bucks and the Celtics.
Milwaukee originally went 28-54 and saw their win total barely budge. Their new team was built by:
- David Lee (6.9) replacing Andrew Bogut (4.0)
- Chris Porter (DNP) replacing Michael Redd (6.1)
- Jason Kapono (4.2) in place of the inactive Szymon Szewczyk
- Quinton Ross (3.2) in place of Reece Gaines (DNP)
- Amir Johnson (0.5) in place of Charlie Villanueva (1.7)
- James Lang (0.1) in place of Mo Williams (3.2)
The Bucks ran with a David Lee-Ruben Patterson-Kapono-Ross-Earl Boykins lineup and went 26-56.
Boston was also already bad in real life, going just 24-58 in Rajon Rondo’s actual rookie year. Despite losing Rondo (2.4) and replacing him with Bargnani (1.9), the redraft Celtics actually got a little better!
- They added Jarrett Jack (4.8) for Gerald Green (1.6)
- Chris Duhon (4.8) for Sebastian Telfair (0.5)
- Lamar Odom (4.7) for Wally Szczerbiak (1.6)
- Flip Murray (1.3) for Curtis Borchardt (inactive)
That offset other big negative moves, including:
- Swapping Al Jefferson (6.6) for Jameer Nelson (4.0)
- Ryan Gomes (4.2) for Sean May (2.2)
The Celtics, with a lineup of Paul Pierce-Jarrett Jack-Jameer Nelson-Duhon-Odom and Bargs, Murray, Travis Outlaw and Sean May off the bench, ended up 29-53, five games improved.
That’s a nice bump up, but nothing compared to the Warriors. Golden State (originally 34-48) was again the big winner thanks to numerous big, big upgrades overpowering big losses. Namely, they lost Monta Ellis (4.0), Matt Barnes (3.7) and Andris Biedrins (6.7) and replaced them with Stephen Graham (-0.1), Tamar Slay (DNP) and Tony Allen (1.9). But it really did not matter.
The Dubs long list of upgrades included:
- Manu Ginobili (10.6) for Baron Davis (6.4)
- Gerald Wallace (7.7) for Rodney White (DNP)
- Carlos Boozer (9.9) for Mike Dunleavy (1.9)
- Kirk Hinrich (10.1) for Mickael Pietrus (3.6)
- Joe Johnson (5.1) for Jason Richardson (3.0)
- Andres Nocioni (4.1) for Sean Lampley (DNP)
- DeSagana Diop (3.8) for Brandon Armstrong (DNP)
- Luke Ridnour (2.3) for Dajuan Wagner
The very deep Warriors powered their way to 59-23, a 25-game improvement, and third in the West.
Another big repeat winner was the Knicks (33-49). New York had five big losses:
- David Lee (6.9) for C.J. Miles (-0.5)
- Renaldo Balkman (2.8) for Leon Powe (1.7)
- Nate Robinson (3.2) for Ian Mahinmi (0.0)
- Quentin Richardson (3.2) for Jake Voskuhl (1.7)
- Jamal Crawford (3.1) for Jamaal Magloire (1.1)
But the Knicks were able to replace that core and then some with the following moves:
- Tony Parker (9.6) in place of Eddy Curry (4.7)
- Andrew Bogut (4.0) for Channing Frye (0.9)
- Elton Brand (11.5) for Steve Francis (2.9), who had been acquired via trade
- Charlie Bell (4.0) for Michael Wright (DNP)
- Jeff Foster (4.5) for Frederic Weis (DNP)
- Udonis Haslem (5.1) for Qyntel Woods (DNP)
- Matt Barnes (3.7) for Jared Jeffries (1.2), acquired in free agency
- Maurice Evans (2.6) for Eric Chenoweth (DNP)
That group of Brand-Parker-Haslem-Foster-Bell-Barnes-Bogut, added to Stephon Marbury’s 5.9 WS, was a 20-win improvement, making the Knicks 53-29, third in the East.
The other really big winner worth mentioning is the Grizzlies (22-60). Memphis earned the right to draft Mike Conley with its bad season in real life, but won’t get the opportunity this time thanks to a big improvement. Their one big loss was Hakim Warrick (3.7) was replaced by Ersan Ilyasova (DNP). Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry didn’t contribute much as rookies, so swapping them for P.J. Tucker and Rodney Carney made little difference in year one.
The Grizz stepped forward thanks to these changes:
- Mickael Pietrus (3.6) for Troy Bell (DNP)
- T.J. Ford (4.3) for Dahntay Jones (0.7)
- Michael Redd (6.1) for Mike Miller (4.8)
- Mehmet Okur (8.8) for Pau Gasol (6.9)
- DeShawn Stevenson (3.1) for Jake Tsakalidis (-0.2)
- Rasual Butler (2.6) for Ryan Humphrey (DNP)
- Steven Hunter (2.8) for Raul Lopez (DNP)
Behind an Okur-Redd top two, with Chucky Atkins, Ford, Pietrus, Stevenson, Hunter and Butler in support, the Grizz picked up 16 wins to finish 38-44, six games out of a playoff spot.
So who fell the furthest in the standings? That would be the Pistons (53-29). Detroit lost Chauncey Billups (11.4) in the last draft, and things didn’t get better after that. Tayshaun Prince (8.0) was replaced by Jannero Pargo (2.0) and Richard Hamilton (8.1) was replaced by Andrei Kirilenko (4.4), two big blows to the starting five. Carlos Delfino (2.9) and Flip Murray (1.3) were swapped out for Marquis Daniels (0.6) and Vincent Yarbrough (DNP), hurting the bench. The Pistons did gain a couple of wins adding Ryan Gomes (4.2) over Jason Maxiell (1.8).
With a lineup of Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Kirilenko, Gomes and Chris Webber, the Pistons sputtered to a 30-52 record, well off the top spot in the East where they had originally finished.
The next-biggest drop-off happened to the Jazz (51-31), originally a real competitor out west. But a series of moves chopped this team off at the knees:
- Mehmet Okur (8.8) out, Jeryl Sasser (DNP) in
- Carlos Boozer (9.9) out, Juan Carlos Navarro (DNP) in
- Andrei Kirilenko (4.4) out, Lee Nailon (DNP) in
- Paul Millsap (4.7) out, Alexander Johnson (1.3) in
- Ronnie Brewer (1.7) out, Rudy Gay (0.5) in
- Gordan Giricek (1.9) out, Tim James (DNP) in
This is all despite adding Chris Paul (8.8) in place of Deron Williams (7.2). With a lineup basically of Paul, Matt Harpring, Derek Fisher, Steve Francis, Shaun Livingston and Alexander Johnson, the Jazz sputter to 30-52.
And of course, the Spurs (58-24) weren’t the same contenders as in real life. Tim Duncan is still around but San Antonio dropped to 44-38, ninth in the west, behind these moves:
- Tony Parker (9.6) out, Loren Woods (0.0) in
- Manu Ginobili (10.6) out, no replacement
- Matt Bonner (2.2) out, Brandon Hunter (DNP) in
- Francisco Elson (3.1) out, Ryan Robertson (DNP) in
But they did have two really bright spots:
- Monta Ellis (4.0) replaced Ian Mahinmi (0.0), and
- Ben Gordon (8.6) was great in place of Beno Udrih (1.0)
So who did that leave to compete for the title? The east basically came down to two teams, one of whom was…
The Nets (49-33). This team was already good, but saw a boost in a few places:
- Josh Boone (1.7) replaced Marcus Williams (-0.1)
- Zaza Pachulia (4.8) replaced Zoran Planinic (DNP)
- Gilbert Arenas (10.8) replaced Richard Jefferson (3.4)
That Arenas performance alone was almost enough to overcome the couple of big losses New Jersey did suffer. Their biggest loss was probably Bostjan Nachbar (4.1), whose spot was taken by Nenad Krstic (1.9). Eddie House (1.9) was missing, too, replaced by inactive Khalid El-Amin.
The Nets overall gained 10 wins, finishing 59-23 but falling just short of your East champions.
For that honor, look no further than the Bulls. Chicago also originally went 49-33 but is riding a great first year class to the conference title. First up, no move paid off more than adding Chauncey Billups (11.4) in place of Tyrus Thomas (2.2)! Other gains:
- Craig Smith (3.9) over Thabo Sefolosha (0.8)
- Mike Dunleavy (5.1) over Jay Williams (DNP)
- Chris Wilcox (6.0) over Chris Jefferies (DNP)
- J.R. Smith (3.7) over Viktor Khryapa (0.4), who came over in the Chauncey trade
- Leandro Barbosa (8.2) over Mike Sweetney (0.4)
And this is all despite losing Ben Gordon (8.6), Luol Deng (11.3) and Chris Duhon (4.8), replaced by Beno Udrih (1.0), Anderson Varejao (6.6) and Ha-Seung Jin (DNP).
The Bulls rode Billups, Barbosa, Ben Wallace, Varejao, Wilcox and Dunleavy to a 61-21 record and the NBA Finals.
Out West, the Spurs are out of the way. Can the Mavs or Suns hold on?
Dallas (67-15) took the bigger drop of the two. The team lost a bunch of contributors, including:
- Josh Howard (8.8), replaced by James Singleton (0.7)
- Devin Harris (6.5), replaced by Trevor Ariza (3.4)
- Jason Terry (10.8), replaced by Corey Maggette (3.0)
Still, the Mavs were able to pick back up some of those wins, thanks to Shane Battier (9.0) replacing DeSagana Diop (3.8). The team, with a core of Dirk-Battier-Erick Dampier-Ariza-Maggette-Jerry Stackhouse, ends up 13 games lower than its original record, at 54-28 and fourth in the West.
The Suns (61-21) had some high-profile player movement but ended up around the same place as in real life. Here are some of their high-profile moves:
- Yao Ming (7.4) replaced Amar’e Stoudemire (11.2)
- Richard Hamilton (8.1) replaced Shawn Marion (12.0)
- Carlos Delfino (2.9) replaced Leandro Barbosa (8.2)
- Chris Kaman (2.9) replaced Boris Diaw (4.6)
- Kyle Korver (4.6) replaced free agent acquisition Marcus Banks (0.4)
- Amar’e re-joined the Suns in what had been a Nik Tskitishvili (DNP) trade
That group, paired with Steve Nash, lost only 22 games, a one-game downgrade. But still, they were only second out west!
So who took over the West, and by extension, the league? That would be the Denver Nuggets (45-37). What was already a pretty good team actually saw one of the biggest forward leaps in the league. Here are some of their more important player moves:
- Chris Bosh (9.6) replaced Carmelo Anthony (7.3)
- Quentin Richardson (3.5) replaced the injured Kenyon Martin (0.0)
- Baron Davis (6.4) replaced Andre Miller (1.9)
- Josh Childress (5.5) replaced J.R. Smith (3.7)
- Chuck Hayes (6.4) replaced Julius Hodge (0.1)
- Caron Butler and Nene canceled each other out (5.3)
- Aging Shaq (2.8) replaced DerMarr Johnson (-0.3)
- Ike Diogu (1.5) replaced Ricky Sanchez (DNP)
- Hakim Warrick (3.7) replaced Linas Kleiza (2.8)
- Dan Langhi (DNP) replaced Eduardo Najera (4.8)
The Nuggets added 19 wins with this set of moves, powering to 64-18 and tops in the league. And with a list of relative non-stars, it’s easy for Denver to protect Chris Bosh and leave guys like Baron Davis, Josh Childress, Caron Butler, an old Shaq, and Quentin Richardson available for whoever gets the first pick. Who’s the best unprotected guy? Scroll down to find out…
STANDINGS
West
1. Nuggets 64-18
2. Suns 60-22
3. Warriors 59-23
4. Mavs 54-28
5. Clippers 52-30
6. Rockets 47-35
7. Lakers 46-36
8. Hornets 44-38
9. Spurs 44-38
10. Wolves 42-40
11. Sonics 41-41
12. Grizzlies 38-44
13. Jazz 30-52
14. Blazers 29-53
15. Kings 21-61
East
1. Bulls 61-21
2. Nets 59-23
3. Knicks 53-29
4. Heat 51-31
5. Raptors 48-34
6. Cavs 41-41
7. Pacers 41-41
8. Bobcats 40-42
9. Hawks 40-42
10. Magic 38-44
11. Sixers 36-46
12. Wizards 32-50
13. Pistons 30-52
14. Celtics 29-53
15. Bucks 26-56
NBA Finals: Nuggets over Bulls
Nuggets protect Chris Bosh
Best player available: Marcus Camby
Random thoughts from Adam Rae Voge 