2006 NBA Re-Draft: Chauncey or LaMarcus?

Brace yourself for the most statistically controversial re-draft decision I made during this project!

As we approach the 2006 NBA Draft, the defending champion Pistons are coveting a number of assets. None of them have more value than Carmelo Anthony, so that’s who Detroit will protect coming into this draft. That leaves the best available player as Chauncey Billups, a point guard who blossomed a little late and led a few teams to great results, nowhere more so than Detroit.

Neither of these guys will end up in Rip City. That’s going to hurt. 

By 2006, Chauncey’s already 29 years old. But he’s got more than 70 win shares left in the tank, including multiple seasons in the immediate future where he’s an All-Star, double-digit win guy. So when our top pick comes around, do you go with Chauncey, who will have a handful of big WS numbers in the immediate future, or the top asset in a draft devoid of absolute superstars, LaMarcus Aldridge (around 80 WS career, but more spread out)?

Before we chew that decision, we’d better figure out who gets the top pick. In the real-life 2006 lottery, things got a little nutty. The team with the worst record, then the Blazers, were the victims of fate, falling all the way back to the fourth pick. The worst record in our world belonged to the Raptors, so slot them in at 4.

Speaking of Toronto, the very same Raptors in real life won the first pick despite having fifth-best odds. The worst team in the newly simulated West, the Blazers, will ride that wave of good fortune to our top pick. Small world!

The rest of the lottery played out as expected, so that means the Bobcats, Hawks, Raptors, Bucks and Jazz round out the top 6, in that order. The Hornets will actually pick in the Bucks’ spot, however, because Milwaukee traded this pick for Jamaal Magloire. That was an all-time backfire, but in real life it was only No. 15. This hurts a lot more.

Speaking of trades, here’s a reminder of draft-day deals that affected this draft (there were many):

• The Blazers traded their first pick (Tyrus Thomas) to the Bulls for LaMarcus Aldridge (who was Chicago’s top pick). The Bulls also grabbed Viktor Khryapa in that deal. The two will swap top picks once again.
• The Blazers made another set of complicated deals after that, swapping Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and a future pick for the Celtics‘ first pick (Randy Foye) and filler. They then flipped Foye to the Wolves for their pick, Brandon Roy. The Wolves will still end up with the Celtics first pick and Blazers will still get the Wolves draftee.
• The Grizzlies acquired the first pick by the Rockets (Rudy Gay) and Stromile Swift in a trade for Shane Battier.
• The Bulls traded their second pick (Rodney Carney) to the Sixers for the 13th pick, Thabo Sefolosha.
• The Suns traded the pick they used on Rajon Rondo, along with Brian Grant, to the Celtics for a first-rounder in 2007.
• The Suns also traded their next pick, Sergio Rodriguez, to the Blazers for cash.

Stealing Chauncey is a win on two fronts for Chicago: 1) He’s a great player, and 2) It breaks up a major road block to a conference championship.

When I set out to do this project, I made ranking players all about the win shares. There will be one top pick soon that will seem super dumb and that will be my justification. But for reasons that are entirely stupid and human, I’m having the Blazers take Chauncey for the Bulls, in order to break up a conference rival and shoot for the moon. We’ll see what happens!

Re-Draft Results:

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Portland Trail Blazers: PG Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons (PF Tyrus Thomas, LSU)
2. Charlotte Bobcats: PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas (SF Adam Morrison, Gonzaga)
3. Atlanta Hawks: PF Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech (PF Shelden Williams, Duke)
4. Toronto Raptors: PG Kyle Lowry, Villanova (PF Andrea Bargnani, Italy)
5. New Orleans Hornets: PG Rajon Rondo, Kentucky (C Hilton Armstrong, UConn)
6. Utah Jazz: SF Rudy Gay, UConn (SG Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas)
7. Chicago Bulls: SG J.J. Redick, Duke (LaMarcus Aldridge)
8. Sacramento Kings: SG Brandon Roy, Washington (SG Quincy Douby, Rutgers)
9. Washington Wizards: SG Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland (C Oleksiy Pecherov, Ukraine)
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: Ronnie Brewer (Brandon Roy)
11. Orlando Magic: PG C.J. Watson, Tennessee (J.J. Redick)
12. Seattle SuperSonics: SG Randy Foye, Villanova (C Mouhamed Sene, Senegal)
13. Houston Rockets: SF P.J. Tucker, Texas (Rudy Gay)
14. Phoenix Suns: Andrea Bargnani (Rajon Rondo)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers: PG J.J. Barea, Puerto Rico (SG Shannon Brown, Michigan State)
16. Philadelphia 76ers: PF Craig Smith, Boston College (Thabo Sefolosha)
17. Chicago Bulls: PG Daniel Gibson, Texas (SF Rodney Carney, Memphis)
18. Boston Celtics: SF Steve Novak, Marquette (Randy Foye)
19. Indiana Pacers: PG Jordan Farmar, UCLA (PF Shawne Williams, Memphis)
20. Phoenix Suns: Tyrus Thomas (SG Sergio Rodriguez, Spain)
21. New York Knicks: PF Leon Powe, California (SF Renaldo Balkman, South Carolina)
22. New York Knicks: C Ryan Hollins, UCLA (PG Mardy Collins, Temple)
23. New Orleans Hornets: Shelden Williams (SF Cedric Simmons, N.C. State)
24. Dallas Mavericks: Shannon Brown (SG Maurice Ager, Michigan State)
25. New Jersey Nets: PF Josh Boone, UConn (PG Marcus Williams, UConn)
26. Los Angeles Lakers: Renaldo Balkman (Jordan Farmar)
27. Golden State Warriors: PF Lou Amundson, UNLV (C Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley)
28. New Jersey Nets: Shawne Williams (Josh Boone)
29. Memphis Grizzlies: Rodney Carney (Kyle Lowry)
30. Portland Trail Blazers: PG Chris Quinn, Notre Dame (PF Joel Freeland, England)

Round 2

1. TOR: PF Solomon Jones, USF (P.J. Tucker)
2. LAC: Sergio Rodriguez (C Paul Davis, Michigan State)
3. ATL: Hilton Armstrong (Solomon Jones)
4. ORL: Joel Freeland (PF James Augustine, Illinois)
5. POR: F Chris Copeland, Colorado (SG James White, Cincinnati)
6. UTA: SG Tarence Kinsey, South Carolina (PG Dee Brown, Illinois)
7. UTA: PF Alexander Johnson, Florida State (Paul Millsap)
8. CHA: SF Bobby Jones, Washington (Ryan Hollins)
9. WAS: James White (F Vladimir Veeremenko, Belarus)
10. MIN: PG Hassan Adams, Arizona (Craig Smith)
11. ORL: PG Pooh Jeter, Portland (F Lior Eliyahu, Israel)
12. SEA: SF Allan Ray, Villanova (SG Denham Brown, UConn)
13. MIL: Patrick O’Bryant (SF David Noel, North Carolina)
14. MIN: Oleksiy Pecherov (Bobby Jones)
15. CLE: Paul Davis (Daniel Gibson)
16. CLE: David Noel (F Ejke Ugboaja, Nigeria)
17. HOU: PF Pops Mensah-Bonsu, George Washington (Steve Novak)
18. MIN: Mouhamed Sene (C Loukas Mavrokefalidis, Greece)
19. IND: James Augustine (Alexander Johnson)
20. LAL: SF Larry Owens, Oral Roberts (C Cheikh Samb, Senegal)
21. SAS: F Marcus Vinicius, Brazil (F Damir Markota, Croatia)
22. DEN: SG Dontell Jefferson, Arkansas (Leon Powe)
23. NOH: Cedric Simmons (Marcus Vinicius)
24. DAL: Dee Brown (PG J.R. Pinnock, George Washington)
25. LAC: Quincy Douby (SG Guillermo Diaz, Miami)
26. TOR: Marcus Williams (F Edin Bavcic, Bosnia)
27. GSW: C Kosta Perovic, Serbia (Kosta Perovic!)
28. NJN: Guillermo Diaz (Hassan Adams)
29. SEA: Cheikh Samb (SG Yotam Halperin, Israel)
30. DET: PG Will Blalock, Iowa State (Will Blalock!)

Biggest winner: Charlotte Bobcats

In another year where plenty of teams made awful, awful picks, Charlotte may have benefited more than anyone by correcting an egregious mistake. Instead of taking Adam Morrison (whom I didn’t even re-draft, that’s how bad he was!), the Bobs add LaMarcus Aldridge to a promising core that’s already revolving around Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. That feels like a superteam-in-the-making, even if they won’t all be superstars right away.

I can’t help but look at the Hawks as a major winner as well. They took Shelden Williams in the original draft, which isn’t a horrendous pick, but instead end up with Paul Millsap, who eventually made his way to Atlanta anyway. Of course, Shelden won’t be around for that long in Atlanta, so Millsap may pay off more for a few other teams…

Also, we can’t gloss over the Raptors. They took the legendary Andrea Bargnani originally, but end up with Kyle Lowry here. That feels like a bigger upgrade than it statistically is, but it’s still an upgrade.

One more teeny acknowledgement: The Hornets flipped Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons in round 1 for Rajon Rondo and Shelden Williams. That’s a bump up.

Biggest loser: Portland Trail Blazers

When I look for a biggest loser, I usually start by looking for great values taken last in round 2. In this draft, look no further than Utah, where the Jazz plucked Paul Millsap at 47. Instead, he’s replaced by Alexander Johnson, a huge drop. So why is Utah not the biggest loser? Well, they also replaced Ronnie Brewer with Rudy Gay (a good-sized jump up) and Dee Brown with Tarence Kinsey (a little jump up). Those two improved picks help offset Millsap, even if they don’t erase the gap.

So I’ll keep looking. There’s no one else who made a big impact taken in round 2, so how about the Grizzlies, who got Kyle Lowry at 24? Their new pick is Rodney Carney, who’s a substantial downgrade. But Lowry, of course, will be traded soon, so Memphis’s loss really isn’t as big as, say, Toronto’s or Houston’s will be farther down the road of Lowry’s career. The Grizz will also lose Rudy Gay, getting good player P.J. Tucker instead, but Tucker will spend a significant part of his 20s playing overseas. But I think I can find a bigger loser…

That brings me to the second-biggest loser of the draft: The Celtics. Boston acquired Rajon Rondo via trade from Phoenix after the Suns originally took him 21st. Not so this time! Instead, it’s Andrea Bargnani whom the Celtics will acquire. That’s only one player, but it’s a big, big drop, and it will hamper the Big 3 era in Boston.

Now, our real losers: The Blazers. Portland got two building blocks in this original draft, LaMarcus Aldridge (the best player here) and Brandon Roy (the seventh-best, but probably second-best or best at his peak). And both of those guys were acquired via trade.

You could argue that draft pick trades get most effed-up by my system, with teams having vastly different picks to send to one team or another. That hasn’t quite taken hold here, but the Blazers’ acquisitions are still dramatically different.

Instead of entering 2006 with Aldridge and Roy, two future all-stars who will elevate Rip City, the Blazers walk away with J.J. Redick, a fourth option on a competitor, and Ronnie Brewer, a basic three-and-D guy. Neither J.J. nor Ronnie is what you’d call a bust, but make no mistake: Those guys aren’t franchise cornerstones. This could hurt Portland for a long, long time.