2003 marks an NBA turning point in several ways.
For one, the class of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony made an instant splash as rookies. Two of those four led their teams to the playoffs in real life, and the other two came within three games.
In re-draft land, this is the year that free agency really starts affecting things. As I laid out in my very first post, I understand that free agent and trade decisions can’t be perfectly reconfigured for my new hypothetical universe. And so, I’m treating every replacement player as if they’d make the same decision as the original player. A 2003 example is DerMarr Johnson, who moved from the Hawks to the Knicks in free agency. As a result, Shaquille O’Neal, a much better and different player who has replaced DerMarr in my world, will play next season in New York. And wherever DerMarr goes (and where his rights eventually die), Shaq will go too.
In the real world, the Wolves took over the West, winning 58 games behind an MVP season from Kevin Garnett. The Lakers still emerged from the conference, but were outclassed by the pre-Sheed, Billups-Wallace-Hamilton-Prince Pistons in the finals. Since two of those players were added during what I’ve dubbed the re-draft era, we’ll see a different Pistons team for sure.
Gauging the ’03-’04 re-draft season, let’s start with those all-world rookies and their landing spots.
The Cavs are missing LeBron, and it…doesn’t matter. The team (originally 35-47) actually registered one of the biggest improvements in the league, despite trading James (5.1) for Dwyane Wade (4.6). The big jump came from adding Shane Battier (5.9) over DeSagana Diop (1.0), Kenyon Martin (6.7) over Chris Mihm (0.9), Ron Artest (8.0) over Trajan Langdon (DNP), Jamal Crawford (4.1) over Darius Miles (0.6) and Stromile Swift (4.8) over Mateen Cleaves (0.0). With a Wade-KMart-Artest-Battier-Big Z starting 5 and Swift, Crawford and Kevin Ollie off the bench, Cleveland goes 52-30 and ends up fourth in the east.
The Heat, LeBron’s new first team, actually got a little worse, although it wasn’t his fault. Bron added half a win over Wade, and Luke Walton (1.6) was a big bump over Jerome Beasley (0.0), but the loss of Rasual Butler (1.6) and the loss of Loren Woods (1.1) in favor of Omar Cook (-0.2) really sunk the Heat. The team, originally 42-40, dropped a win to end up 41-41 and seventh in the east, despite fielding a recognizable Eddie Jones-Rafer Alston-LeBron-Jason Terry-Brian Grant lineup.
The Nuggets (43-39) added a better long-term piece in Chris Bosh (6.2) over Carmelo Anthony (6.1) but got a little worse in ’03-04. The loss of Nene (6.1) in favor of Caron Butler (2.1) was a killer, while the swaps of Andre Miller (8.8) for Baron Davis (7.5) and Francisco Elson (1.8) for Ryan Robertson (DNP) and Rodney White (1.8) for Gerald Wallace (0.4) also chipped away at Denver’s win total. Luckily Amar’e Stoudemire (4.4) was around to replace Nik Tskitishvili (-0.1) and boost the team’s final record to 40-42, eighth in the West. That Bosh-Amar’e-Baron Davis-Gerald Wallace-Caron Butler group feels like a potential contender down the road….
And in Detroit, the Pistons (54-28) went from really good to…really good. Funny enough, the Pistons lost major pieces to their championship run in Tayshaun Prince (7.5) and Mehmet Okur (5.9) and replaced them with basically no contribution from Jannero Pargo (0.1) and Jeryl Sasser (DNP). Lucky for them, their original pick of Darko Milicic (-0.2) has turned into Carmelo Anthony (6.1), a high-impact rookie and probably the ROY runner-up after Chris Bosh. Richard Hamilton (8.1) was supplanted by Andrei Kirilenko (11.6), probably the team’s MVP, even over Chauncey Billups. The Pistons netted a fraction of a negative win but ended up at the same 54-28 record, good for third in the east.
So who were the big movers? The biggest loser was … stop me if you’ve heard this one … the Spurs (57-25). San Antonio dropped 6.4 wins going from Tony Parker (7.5) to Loren Woods (1.1). They lost another 9.1 wins from Manu Ginobili’s unfilled spot. Then, to make it worse, they lost 6.4 wins going from Hedo Turkoglu (6.7) to Keyon Dooling (0.3). Luckily for them, Mark Madsen (2.7) was there to take Erick Barkley’s place (DNP) next to Tim Duncan, Rasho Nesterovic, Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry on a team that struggled to a 38-44 finish, ninth in the West.
The Jazz (42-40) nearly matched San Antonio’s drop. The absence of Jarron Collins (4.2), and trade of Andrei Kirilenko (11.6) for Lee Nailon (0.2) cost them 16 wins alone, and incremental losses of guys like DeShawn Stevenson (1.5) being replaced by Jake Tsakalidis (0.9) and Scott Padgett (1.9) swapped out for Jon Bender (0.5) added up to a -17.8-win net for Utah and a 24-58 finish, third-worst in the league.
The biggest net gain belonged to the Knicks (39-43), about half of which came from losing DerMarr Johnson (0.4) and adding Shaq (9.9) in his place. Believe it or not, Jeff Foster (8.3) replacing Frederic Weis (DNP) was almost as important in raising New York’s win total to 58, good for second in the East.
The biggest jump in wins belonged to the NBA Champs (a first!), but I’ll wait to share so we can avoid spoilers.
The lottery tankathon really came down to four teams: The Clippers (28-54), Sixers (33-49), Bucks (41-41) and Jazz, whom we’ve already talked about.
Milwaukee ended up with the fourth-worst record in the league, 28-54, as the result of a 13-win drop in the standings. That was fueled mostly by the loss of Michael Redd (9.7), a budding superstar with no replacement in Chris Porter (DNP).
Philadelphia and LA2 duked it out for the right to win the 2004 draft lottery, and ultimately the Sixers fell short. They dropped 11 wins and finished 22-60 by swapping Samuel Dalembert (6.9) for Eddie Griffin (0.0), who spent the season in rehab, and also replaced Kenny Thomas (6.6) with Calvin Booth (2.2).
But the Clippers were the worst team overall, dropping eight games and finishing 20-62 thanks mostly to the loss of Corey Maggette (8.6), replaced by Wally Szczerbiak (1.6). Shawn Marion (9.1) filled in ably for Elton Brand (9.7), but even the real-life Clippers had a pretty bare cupboard after their top two players.
The real-life NBA Finals rep in the East was the Pistons, but the regular season belonged to the Pacers (61-21). The re-draft-era Pacers were able to hold on to that title despite dropping off a bit. Their biggest losses — from dropping Jeff Foster for Francisco Elson (1.8), Jamaal Tinsley (4.4) for Eddy Curry (3.0), and Ron Artest (8.0) for Kenny Thomas (6.6) — were nearly offset by one big change, swapping Jonathan Bender (0.5) out for Andre Miller (8.8). Miller will prove to be a valuable piece for several teams down the road.
The Pacers, led by a Jermaine O’Neal-Reggie Miller-Andre Miller-Kenny Thomas-Al Harrington starting five and Eddy Curry and Anthony Johnson off the bench, go 59-23 and represent the east in the NBA Finals.
Remember when I said the biggest jump belonged to the NBA champs? Well, it also belonged to your original West regular season champs, the Wolves. That’s right, the Wolves didn’t just retain their conference lead — they got even better. And the funny thing is that you wouldn’t even expect them to stand out, given the pieces they got and lost.
Minnesota was led in ’02-’03 by Kevin Garnett (18.3) and Sam Cassell (12.1), two pre-re-draft vets. Our universe added two amazing pieces next to them — Lamar Odom (8.4) in the place of Wally Szczerbiak (1.6) and a breakout season from James Posey (10.0) in the spot where William Avery (DNP) would have gone. Even with the loss of Trenton Hassell (4.0), replaced by Alton Ford (0.1), the Wolves net 18.3 new wins and finish at an NBA-record 76-6. Yeah…that’s crazy.
Predictably enough, the defending champs protect The Big Ticket and leave Lamar Odom as the most valuable available player. Will he prove more valuable than the best incoming rookie? Stay tuned.
Final standings:
East
1. Pacers 59-23
2. Knicks 58-24
3. Pistons 54-28
4. Cavs 52-30
5. Hornets 49-33
6. Raptors 45-37
7. Heat 41-41
8. Bulls 36-46
9. Nets 35-47
10. Celtics 33-49
11. Hawks 33-49
12. Magic 31-51
13. Wizards 30-52
14. Bucks 28-54
15. Sixers 22-60
West
1. Wolves 76-6
2. Kings 56-26
3. Grizzlies 55-27
4. Rockets 51-31
5. Mavs 47-35
6. Blazers 47-35
7. Lakers 45-37
8. Nuggets 40-42
9. Spurs 38-44
10. Warriors 37-45
11. Sonics 37-45
12. Suns 36-46
13. Jazz 24-58
14. Clippers 20-62
NBA Finals:
Wolves over Pacers
Protected: Kevin Garnett
Best Unprotected Player: Lamar Odom
Random thoughts from Adam Rae Voge 