The 2001-2002 NBA season: Pau still Paus

2001-2002 was the continuation of a dynasty.

The Lakers again won the title, sweeping the Kidd-Kittles-Van Horn Nets. Pau Gasol dominated for a terrible Grizzlies team and won Rookie of the Year, while Tim Duncan won MVP for the Spurs.

This…still happened.

San Antonio remained competitive in our world, despite losing Tony Parker (3.8 WS) and replacing him with Loren Woods (0.5). They lost 2.9 wins overall, dropping from 58-24 to 55-27 and the second seed in the west.

Pau’s Grizzlies, despite keeping Pau, stayed awful. Pau (7.6) replaced another very good rookie in Shane Battier (4.8) while Mehmet Okur (DNP) took Pau’s place as the big trade acquisition from Atlanta. Okur will become a great player, but didn’t join the NBA until later. Those changes, even boosted by Hedo Turkoglu (5.2) replacing Stromile Swift (3.7), resulted in a loss of 2.9 wins for the Grizz, sending their first season in Memphis to a 20-62 finish and a tie for worst record in the West.

Their Tankathon nemeses were the Warriors, who largely ran in place by replacing a Jason Richardson-Troy Murphy-Gilbert Arenas trio (7.0 WS total) with Joe Johnson, Jarron Collins and Raul Lopez (6 WS).

The big winners of the new season were the Bulls, who plugged Tony Parker’s 3.8 WS into Eddy Curry’s old spot (1.8), while also seeing gains from adding Mike Miller (4.5) over Marcus Fizer (1.1) and Jamaal Magloire (5.7) over Jamal Crawford (0.6). Kenny Thomas (4.4) also proved a nice replacement for Ron Artest (1.4). The Bulls netted 13.1 wins overall, but that wasn’t enough to lift them to the playoffs. They finished 34-48 (instead of 21-61) and were still tied for last in the East.

The next biggest boost happened in Atlanta, where the Hawks rode their new superstar, Shaq (13.2) to a 43-39 record, 10.1 wins above their original finish. Shaq’s production lapped that of DerMarr Johnson (1.7), the original Hawk pick. Meanwhile Todd MacCulloch (5.6) shined replacing Dion Glover (0.9). The only drag was Corey Maggette (3.3), who had the tough task of trying to replace a great Jason Terry season (8.6).

For the second year running, the Lakers saw the steepest decline (-16.7 wins) thanks to Shaq’s empty, enormous shoes. This year, they also lost major production transitioning from Devean George (4.2) to Gordan Giricek, who hasn’t played his first game in the NBA yet. Their 41-41 record (down from 58-24) put them ninth in the West, a game from the playoffs. Kobe probably isn’t happy about that.

This guy went from key player on a bad team to key bench piece on a championship team in 2002.

You didn’t have to travel far from Staples Center to find the next biggest loser in 2001-2002. That would be the Suns, whose original 36-46 record dipped even further to 24-58 thanks to several key losses. Biggest of all, Shawn Marion (9.8) replacement Richard Hamilton (4.0) played well but not well enough to match The Matrix’s production. DeShawn Stevenson (-0.2) also played nowhere near well enough to replace Jake Tsakalidis (2.8), and Jason Collier (0.4) wasn’t nearly the acquisition that Jake Voskuhl (2.7), acquired via trade from Chicago, turned out to be.

With the Lakers declawed and the Spurs mostly out of the way, the Western Conference belonged to the Kings. Sacramento was already great, and nearly derailed the Lakers with that Webber-Divac-Bibby-Peja-Christie core, but fell just short in the real-life conference finals.

The Kings fielded nearly the same team in our world, going 62-20 instead of 61-21. Their main changes were replacing rookie Gerald Wallace (0.6) with Jarron Collins (3.3), a much more effective first-year player but much worse player in the long run. They also swapped Hedo Turkoglu (5.2) for the ineffective Keyon Dooling (0.0), but that loss was eclipsed by Collins and Stromile Swift (3.7), acquired in the trade that originally sent draft bust Mateen Cleaves (-0.3) to Sacramento.

In the East, no team had a better years than the Pistons and Celtics.

Detroit in real life was just starting to assemble that championship group that suffocated opposing offenses, and in 2002 saw a breakout year from Ben Wallace carry them to 50-32 and second in the conference.  In the reboot, Detroit gained a win thanks to the addition of Gerald Wallace (0.6) in Rodney White’s (-0.2) place.

Boston was also already good, posting a 49-33 record behind young Paul Pierce (12.9) and Antoine Walker. The Cs gained two more wins thanks to Troy Murphy (1.4) and Vlad Radmanovic (2.1), who filled bench roles much more ably than Kedrick Brown (0.4) and Joe Forte (-0.1). Even with the loss of Joe Johnson, whose 2 win shares were replaced by Sam Dalembert’s 0.3, Boston rose to 51-31.

The Nets, your original Eastern Conference champs, were still competitive but lost nearly nine wins thanks to several departures, the largest of which (literally and figuratively) was Todd MacCulloch (5.6). Richard Jefferson (4.7) and Jason Collins (3.0) also weren’t around, replaced respectively by Gilbert Arenas (2.7) and Earl Watson (1.5). The one bright spot was Quentin Richardson (5.6), who slightly outproduced a key piece in Kenyon Martin (4.9). Overall, the Nets fell from 52-30 to 43-39.

STANDINGS

East
1. Pistons 51-31
2. Celtics 51-31
3. Pacers 48-34
4. Magic 48-34
5. Sixers 45-37
6. Nets 43-39
7. Hawks 43-39
8. Wizards 42-40
9. Raptors 41-41
10. Bucks 38-44
11. Hornets 37-45
12. Heat 35-47
13. Cavaliers 34-48
14. Knicks 34-48
15. Bulls 34-48

West
1. Kings 62-20
2. Spurs 55-27
3. Trail Blazers 52-30
4. Mavs 51-31
5. Timberwolves 45-37
6. Clippers 44-38
7. SuperSonics 42-40
8. Jazz 42-40
9. Lakers 41-41
10. Rockets 34-48
11. Nuggets 28-54
12. Suns 24-58
13. Grizzlies 20-62
14. Warriors 20-62

NBA Finals:

Kings over Pistons

Protected: Chris Webber

Best Unprotected Player: Peja Stojakovic

The 2001 NBA Re-Draft: Away with the Busts

2000 featured such a weak draft, and 1999 such a level one, that to this point we’ve really not been treated to any massive busts getting re-drafted. That changes this year.

In the 2001 Draft, the Top 10 featured Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, DeSagana Diop and Rodney White. Of that group, only White didn’t stay in our first round. But Curry, the best NBA player in the group, was the 16th-best player taken in this draft. That means guys like Tony Parker, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace and Mehmet Okur could have all elevated losing franchises who wasted their time with Kwame or Curry.

This guy was chosen after such flops as Rodney White, Kwame Brown and Eddy Curry. No more!

The real-life ’01 Lottery elevated the Wizards, who had the third-best odds, to the top pick and the chance to derail their franchise with Brown. In re-draft land, that’ll be the Grizzlies.

 

The rest of the lottery was just as nutty, with the Clippers picking second despite having the eighth-best odds, and the Hawks choosing third despite projecting to the fifth pick. Our draft features the Bulls second and Clippers third. The real-life Bulls, for the second straight year, were boned despite having the best odds. In a full-circle moment, the bizarro-world Wizards are the ones getting boned in our world, so they’ll pick fourth.

With the top pick, the Grizz face what I don’t consider much of a dilemma: Go with the top player available, Pau Gasol, or grab an aging David Robinson from San Antonio. The Grizz will roll with Pau, who coincidentally ended up in Vancouver after this draft, although he was selected by Atlanta.

There were a bunch of major trades in the 2001 Draft. So before we get into who picked whom, a few reminders of what happened in real life, because all of these things will still happen with the new picks:

• The Clippers traded their top pick (Tyson Chandler) to the Bulls for Elton Brand, their top pick from two years prior (that pick is now actually Shawn Marion).
• The Hawks selected Pau Gasol but traded him to the Grizzlies for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the 28th pick in this draft (Jamaal Tinsley).
• The Nets selected Eddie Griffin and shipped him to Houston for a package including the 13th pick (Richard Jefferson).
• Also, don’t forget that the Timberwolves will not pick in the first round because of their Joe Smith fiasco.

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Vancouver Grizzlies: C Pau Gasol, Spain (SF Shane Battier, Duke)
2. Chicago Bulls: PG Tony Parker, France (C Eddy Curry, high school)
3. Los Angeles Clippers: C Tyson Chandler, high school (Tyson Chandler!)
4. Washington Wizards: SF Richard Jefferson, Arizona (PF Kwame Brown, high school)
5. Golden State Warriors: SG Joe Johnson, Arkansas (SG Jason Richardson, Michigan State)
6. New Jersey Nets: PF Zach Randolph, Michigan State (PF Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall)
7. Cleveland Cavaliers: Shane Battier (C DeSagana Diop, Senegal)
8. Detroit Pistons: SF Gerald Wallace, Alabama (SF Rodney White, Charlotte)
9. Charlotte Hornets: Jason Richardson (PF Kirk Haston, Indiana)
10. Atlanta Hawks: C Mehmet Okur, Turkey (Pau Gasol)
11. Boston Celtics: C Samuel Dalembert, Seton Hall (Joe Johnson)
12. Houston Rockets: SG Gilbert Arenas, Arizona (Richard Jefferson)
13. Boston Celtics: PF Troy Murphy, Notre Dame (SF Kedrick Brown, junior college)
14. Orlando Magic: C Brendan Haywood, North Carolina (C Steven Hunter, DePaul)
15. Boston Celtics: PF Vladimir Radmanovic, Yugoslavia (SG Joe Forte, North Carolina)
16. Vancouver Grizzlies: Eddy Curry (PG Jamaal Tinsley, Iowa State)
17. Seattle SuperSonics: Kwame Brown (Vlad Radmanovic)
18. Golden State Warriors: C Jason Collins, Stanford (Troy Murphy)
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: SF Bobby Simmons, DePaul (Brendan Haywood)
20. Minnesota Timberwolves: FORFEITED
21. Houston Rockets: PG Earl Watson, UCLA (Jason Collins)
22. Portland Trail Blazers: Jamaal Tinsley (Zach Randolph)
23. Sacramento Kings: C Jarron Collins, Stanford (Gerald Wallace)
24. Orlando Magic: SG Trenton Hassell, Austin Peay (SG Jeryl Sasser, SMU)
25. Houston Rockets: DeSagana Diop (SG Brandon Armstrong, Pepperdine)
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Eddie Griffin (Samuel Dalembert)
27. Utah Jazz: Steven Hunter (PG Raul Lopez, Spain)
28. Toronto Raptors: PF Brian Scalabrine, USC (PF Michael Bradley, Villanova)
29. San Antonio Spurs: C Loren Woods, Arizona (Tony Parker)

Round 2

1. ORL: Kedrick Brown (PG Omar Cook, St. John’s)
2. GSW: Raul Lopez (Gilbert Arenas)
3. VAN: Michael Bradley (PG Will Solomon, Clemson)
4. NJN: Rodney White (Brian Scalabrine)
5. PHI: F Sean Lampley, Cal (SF Damone Brown, Syracuse)
6. CLE: SF Terence Morris, Maryland (SG Jeff Trepagnier, USC)
7. CHI: PF Alton Ford, Houston (Trenton Hassell)
8. DET: Jeryl Sasser (Memhet Okur)
9. CHI: C Ruben Boumtje, Georgetown (Sean Lampley)
10. ATL: F Antonsis Fotsis, Greece (Terence Morris)
11. DEN: C Alvin Jones, Georgia Tech (PF Ousmane Cisse, Mali)
12. DAL: Will Solomon (PG Kyle Hill, Eastern Illinois)
13. PHX: PG Jamison Brewer, Auburn (Alton Ford)
14. SEA: PG Carlos Arroyo, Puerto Rico (Earl Watson)
15. NYK: PG Charlie Bell, Michigan State (PF Michael Wright, Arizona)
16. SAS: F Andres Nocioni, Argentina (C Robertas Javtokas, Lithuania)
17. NYK: F Maurice Evans, Texas (C Eric Chenowith, Kansas )
18. IND: F Jamario Moon, high school (Jamison Brewer)
19. MIA: C Ken Johnson, Ohio State (Ken Johnson!)
20. MIN: Omar Cook (Loren Woods)
21. VAN: Jeff Trepagnier (Kaniel Dickens)
22. POR: Joe Forte (Ruben Boumtje)
23. SAC: Kirk Haston (SG Maurice Jeffers, Saint Louis)
24. MIL: Brandon Armstrong (PF Andre Hutson, Michigan State)
25. DAL: Damone Brown (PG Kenny Satterfield, Cincinnati)
26. PHI: Kenny Satterfield (Alvin Jones)
27. UTA: No pick (Jarron Collins)
28. SEA: No pick (Bobby Simmons)
29. SAS: No pick (PF Bryan Bracey, Oregon)

Biggest winner: Chicago Bulls

I had a hard time finding a bigger jump than from Curry to Tony Parker, and they still get Tyson Chandler via trade! That’s a boon for sure, and the Bulls will benefit right away. But they weren’t the only ones whose fortunes changed dramatically.

I think any honorable mention would have to include the Celtics, who really botched this draft the first time around. With their THREE first round picks, they took Joe Forte, Kedrick Brown and Joe Johnson. One of those turned out well. Losing Iso-Joe hurts, but getting Troy Murphy, Sam Dalembert and Vlad Radmanovic is a good swap overall. (And if anyone ever belonged in Boston, it’s Troy Murphy.)

Biggest loser: San Antonio Spurs

This was a tough category to pick. Instinct tells you to look at the Warriors, who lost Gilbert Arenas in the second round, or Pistons, who lost a championship piece in Mehmet Okur, but both made big leaps in the first round.

The one team to lose a big piece and not really gain anything worthwhile is the defending champs, the Spurs. Tony Parker came in immediately and made an impact, so it’s almost like they lost him as an unprotected player rather than a rookie. Loren Woods, if you didn’t know, didn’t have nearly the career that Tony Parker did, and…yeah…that’s gonna hurt San Antonio. On the plus side, getting Andres Nocioni late in the second is a good pickup. He will have a couple of years down the road (he doesn’t come to the NBA for a quite some time) that will help the Spurs.

The 2000-2001 NBA Season: The First Big Swings

It’s only been two years in my little experiment, and we’ve already broken up a dynasty.

In real-life 2000-2001, The Los Angeles Lakers waltzed through the playoffs, losing only one game in the finals, despite placing second in the Western Conference regular season. The Spurs (led by Tim Duncan) and Sixers (Allen Iverson) were tops in each conference during the season. A.I. won MVP on the strength of 31.1 points per game, while the Orlando Magic‘s Mike Miller (5.3 WS) took home Rookie of the Year.

That all changes here.

Will Shaq’s departure open up the West for these guys? 

First things first: Miller can still be ROY, but he does it for a much-improved but still-bad Bulls team. The core of Miller, Jamaal Magloire (2.6 WS) (acquired from the Cavs in what was really the Jamal Crawford trade), Darius Miles (3.0) and Shawn Marion (11.7 Win Shares!!!) from last year’s re-draft, along with vets like Fred Hoiberg and Brad Miller, powered Chicago to 32 wins instead of 15. The Bulls registered the biggest net gain of any team (+17.4), but it feels kind of wasted, doesn’t it?

While we’re on the topic, Shaq was the statistical MVP of the ’00-’01 season. He posted 14.9 WS, which transfer from the Lakers to the Hawks. And, honestly, the Hawks weren’t ready for it. Even with O’Neal, Atlanta’s re-drafted core of Corey Maggette (3.9) and Todd MacCullouch (2.5) and veterans including Dikembe Mutombo, Lorenzen Wright and a withered Toni Kukoc, simply wasn’t competitive.

The Hawks managed the second-biggest jump (+11.5) but only went from 25 wins to 37 wins, falling a game short of the postseason.

Of course, Shaq’s migration was just as bad for the Lakers as it was good for Atlanta. The more popular L.A. team netted -14.7 wins without Shaq, while also losing a game by swapping Mark Madsen (1.1) for Donnell Harvey (0.1). Kobe’s best teammates ended up being Horace Grant, Rick Fox and Robert Horry, who didn’t even combine to match Shaq’s WS total. That’s…not a championship group, and they ended up 41-41, in the eighth spot in the West.

The two other biggest drops came in Charlotte, where the Hornets lost 11.5 wins, and in Phoenix, where the Suns lost 11.

For Charlotte, the biggest shift came from Baron Davis’s absence (8.9 WS). If you’ll remember, Buzz City drafted Manu Ginobili instead, but he won’t come to the NBA for a few years still. And instead of adding Magloire and Lee Nailon (0.9) to Baron, the Hornets put Speedy Claxton (0.0) and John Celestand (0.0) out there. The Hornets fell from 46 wins to 34, missing out on the postseason and joining the lottery.

Phoenix fell from highly competitive to a game off the Lakers, at 40-42, thanks largely to Shawn Marion not being around. Instead, the Suns played Rip Hamilton (2.4), who did OK but nowhere near what Marion did as a sophomore in the league. Statistically speaking, Marion was the 12th best player that year, enough to swing any team’s fortunes. Elsewhere, the Suns traded Jake Tsakalidis (1.3 WS) for DeShawn Stevenson (-0.4), losing nearly another two games.

A few other notables…

My last post mourned the Bucks, who lost Michael Redd in the draft. But Redd was underwhelming as a rookie (-0.1 WS), so the effect was minimal this year. And they acquired Eduardo Najera (1.1) in the real-life Joel Przyzbilla (0.1) trade, a net positive. Add that to the existing core of Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, Glenn Robinson and Tim Thomas, and an already-good Bucks team stayed good, gaining a win to finish 53-29, third in the East.

In Tankathon news, the Bulls rise opened up a competition between the Wizards and Warriors, two teams who were bad in real life and stayed bad in the simulation. Ultimately, the Wizards finished with only 15 wins, down four thanks to the loss of Richard Hamilton, who was replaced by the still-in-Russia Andrei Kirilenko. The Dubs matched their real-life total of 17 wins, with no impact from swapping Chris Porter and Vonteego Cummings (0.4 combined) for Dion Glover (0.8).

So, with the Lakers out, who rose to the top in the West? It was the Spurs, whose win total was boosted by two thanks to Trajan Langdon (2.0), drafted in place of Leon Smith (DNP). Manu’s absence wasn’t felt…yet…allowing San Antonio to go 60-22 behind Duncan, David Robinson and a ragtag group including Derek Anderson, Antonio Daniels and Terry Porter.

In the East, the Sixers remained competitive but yielded to the Raptors, who rose to 55-27 (from 47-35) thanks to a huge season from Steve Francis (12.2), their replacement for Aleksandar Radojevic (DNP). That’s despite the loss of Morris Peterson (3.6), replaced by Primoz Brezec, who didn’t play in the NBA that year.

STANDINGS

East
1. Raptors 55-27
2. Sixers 55-27
3. Bucks 53-29
4. Knicks 51-31
5. Heat 50-32
6. Pacers 46-36
7. Celtics 39-43
8. Magic 38-44
9. Hawks 37-45
10. Hornets 34-48
11. Pistons 34-48
12. Bulls 32-50
13. Cavaliers 31-51
14. Nets 25-57
15. Wizards 15-67

West
1. Spurs 60-22
2. Jazz 55-27
3. Mavericks 53-29
4. Kings 53-29
5. Trail Blazers 51-31
6. Timberwolves 50-32
7. SuperSonics 42-40
8. Lakers 41-41
9. Suns 40-42
10. Rockets 40-42
11. Nuggets 38-44
12. Clippers 29-53
13. Grizzlies 24-58
14. Warriors 17-65

NBA Finals:

Spurs over Raptors

Protected: Tim Duncan

Best Unprotected Player: David Robinson

The 2000 NBA Re-Draft: Now We’re Having Fun

Re-doing one draft and applying the new records had a minimal effect on reality’s version of events in the 1999-2000 season. We’re about to find out that it gets a lot more fun, and fast. And the effects start snowballing.

OK, imagine this happening again. But in 2000 instead of 1992. And Shaq looks older. And he’s holding up a Hawks jersey. 

If you don’t remember the concept I’m working from, review it here. TL;DR: I’m re-drafting every year since 1999, applying the results, and seeing what happens. Oh, and the team with the first pick can take the best unprotected player from the defending champ, if they’d prefer.

 

So that brings us back to our new version of reality. The Los Angeles Lakers have just finished off the Indiana Pacers in a competitive NBA Finals, and opted to protect the 22-year-old Kobe Bryant over prime Shaquille O’Neal (remember: everyone KNOWS what is going to become of all these players; there are no secrets).

In the 2000 NBA Draft lottery, the team with the seventh-best odds took home that top pick. That ended up being the Nets in real life, but in our new world, it’s the Hawks! The worst team in the league, the Bulls, get boned by the lottery and end up third.

So, the Hawks’ dilemma is this: Take the top player by Win Shares in the draft, who just so happens to be Hedo Turkoglu (what a great draft!), or grab Shaquille O’Neal, a dominant center in the prime of his career. Well, considering Shaq will eclipse Hedo’s career WS total in the next five seasons, it’s not that tough of a choice.

Let’s take a look…

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Atlanta Hawks: Shaquille O’Neal, C, Lakers (DerMarr Johnson, G, Cincinnati)
2. Vancouver Grizzlies: Hedo Turkoglu, F, Turkey (Stromile Swift, PF, LSU)
3. Chicago Bulls: Mike Miller, SG, Florida (Marcus Fizer, PF, Iowa State)
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Jamal Crawford, G, Michigan (Darius Miles, SF, High School)
5. Orlando Magic: Michael Redd, SG, Ohio State (Mike Miller)
6. Chicago Bulls: Kenyon Martin, PF, Cincinnati (Chris Mihm, C, Texas)
7. Orlando Magic: Morris Peterson, SG, Michigan State (Keyon Dooling, PG, Missouri)
8. New Jersey Nets: Quentin Richardson, SG, DePaul (Kenyon Martin)
9. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jamaal Magloire, C, Kentucky (Jamal Crawford)
10. Houston Rockets: Eduardo Najera, F, Oklahoma (Joel Przyzbilla, C, Minnesota)
11. Boston Celtics: Desmond Mason, G/F, Oklahoma State (Jerome Moiso, C, UCLA)
12. Dallas Mavericks: Joel Przyzbilla (Etan Thomas, PF, Syracuse)
13. Detroit Pistons: Stromile Swift (Mateen Cleaves, PG, Michigan State)
14. Milwaukee Bucks: Eddie House, PG, Arizona State (Jason Collier, C, Georgia Tech)
15. Sacramento Kings: Keyon Dooling (Hedo Turkoglu)
16. Orlando Magic: Brian Cardinal, PF, Purdue (Courtney Alexander, SG, Fresno State)
17. Seattle SuperSonics: Etan Thomas (Desmond Mason)
18. Charlotte Hornets: Speedy Claxton, PG, Hofstra (Jamaal Magloire)
19. Philadelphia 76ers: Chris Mihm (Speedy Claxton)
20. Phoenix Suns: DeShawn Stevenson, SG, high school (Jake Tsakalidis, C, Greece)
21. New York Knicks: Marko Jaric, PG, Serbia (Donnell Harvey, SF, Florida)
22. Los Angeles Clippers: Jake Voskuhl, C, Connecticut (Quentin Richardson)
23. Toronto Raptors: Primoz Brezec, C, Slovenia (Morris Peterson)
24. Utah Jazz: Jake Tsakalidis (DeShawn Stevenson)
25. Chicago Bulls: Darius Miles (Dalibor Bagaric, C, Croatia)
26. Denver Nuggets: Jason Hart, PG, Syracuse (Mamadou N’Diaye, C, Auburn)
27. Portland Trail Blazers: Mark Madsen, PF, Stanford (Erick Barkley, PG, St. John’s)
28. Indiana Pacers: DerMarr Johnson (Primoz Brezec)
29. Los Angeles Lakers: Donnell Harvey (Mark Madsen)

Round 2

1. DAL: Courtney Alexander (Dan Langhi)
2. LAC: Marcus Fizer (Marko Jaric)
3. CHI: Jerome Moiso (A.J. Guyton, PG, Indiana)
4. CHI: Jason Collier (Jake Voskuhl)
5. WAS: Mamadou N’Diaye (Mike Smith, G, Louisiana-Monroe)
6. ATL: Jabari Smith, PF, LSU (Hanno Mottola, C, Finland)
7. CHI: Olumide Oyedeji, C, Nigeria (Khalid El-Amin, PG, UConn)
8. NJN: Hanno Mottola (Soumaila Samake, C, Mali)
9. MIA: Khalid El-Amin (Eddie House)
10. HOU: Dan Langhi, SF, Vanderbilt (Eduardo Najera)
11. NYK: A.J. Guyton (Lavor Postell, SG, St. John’s)
12. SEA: Soumaila Samake (Josip Sesar, G, Croatia)
13. DET: Erick Barkley (Brian Cardinal)
14. MIL: Chris Porter, PF, Auburn (Michael Redd)
15. SAC: Kaniel Dickens, F, Idaho (Jabari Smith)
16. SAS: Igor Rakocevic, G, Serbia (Chris Carrawell, G, Duke)
17. SEA: Dan McClintock, C, Northern Arizona (Olumide Oyedeji)
18. MIL: Mike Smith (Jason Hart)
19. PHI: Lavor Postell (Mark Karcher, PG, Temple)
20. DEN: Ernest Brown, C, Indian Hills CC (Dan McClintock)
21. UTA: Mateen Cleaves (Kaniel Dickens)
22. TOR: Dalibor Bagaric (DeeAndre Hulett, F, College of the Sequoias)
23. MIN: No pick (Igor Rakocevic)
24. MIA: No pick (Ernest Brown)
25. SAS: No pick (Cory Hightower, G, Indian Hills CC)
26. GSW: No pick (Chris Porter)
27. ATL: No pick (Scoonie Penn, SG, Ohio State)
28. IND: No pick (Jaquay Walls, G, Colorado)
29. DAL: No pick (Pete Mickeal, F, Cincinnati)

Biggest winner: Atlanta Hawks

It’s tough to argue against Atlanta, who turns a not-terrible-but-not-good player in DerMarr Johnson into the Big Aristotle, a franchise-turning presence in the year 2000.

Many other teams did well, but in such a non-impactful draft it’s tough to see big changes even for teams who completely whiffed in real life. Example: The Celtics turned Jerome Moiso (woof) into Desmond Mason and the Pistons turned Mateen Cleaves into Stromile Swift. Those are both an obvious improvement, but will Mason or Swift move the needle THAT much? Probably not.

Now, when you fudge up a draft in a historically bad way, as the Bulls did by drafting Marcus Fizer, Chris Mihm and Dalibor Bagaric in the first round and Jake Voskuhl, Khalid El-Amin and A.J. Guyton in the second, you’re bound to see some improvement. In this case, that comes in the form of Mike Miller, Kenyon Martin and Darius Miles, who make a better core but still won’t catapult the team into the stratosphere as much as three well-chosen first round picks any other year might.

Biggest loser (not counting the Lakers): Milwaukee Bucks

The trend of this category will almost always be the same. Any team who finds great value late in the second round will not find that same value in our new world, pretty much screwing them over forever. I mean, for all intents and purposes, second-round picks are suddenly valueless, because very rarely does the 54th-best player in a draft really make any impact, except for maybe a year or two.

In the Bucks‘ case, that means almost-career-Buck and franchise face Michael Redd isn’t there at 43. The Deer essentially landed the fourth-best player with that pick back in 2000, so that hurts. In Milwaukee’s favor, they had missed with their 15th pick that year (used on Jason Collier). Eddie House is a big step up. But their pick at 49, Jason Hart, played in the NBA for years and racked up the 25th-best resume of this draft class, another winning value. Dropping him and taking Mike Smith instead is yet another step down.

Will Shaq turn Atlanta into a contender? What happens in Los Angeles without the Diesel in the middle? And will Hedo Turkoglu turn the Vancouver Grizz into the team Stromile Swift never could?

Stay tuned for the next post to find out…

The 1999 NBA Season: The Butterfly Effect begins here

With only one season’s worth of redrafted players in the league, the effects on team records in 1999 are minimal. In fact, most team’s records didn’t shift at all.

Jonathan Bender’s absence in 1999-2000 was a good thing for the Pacers.

The ’99 Draft was a well-chosen one, at least in terms of not featuring bust after bust drafted before legitimately good players. The biggest “bust” in the top 10 was Jonathan Bender, and his absence in Indiana (who acquired him in a trade) was immediately felt (in a good way).

The Pacers were one of the biggest movers in ’99, thanks to swapping out Bender for a young Andre Miller (5.3 WS that year). The Pacers were already good that year, buoyed by guys like Reggie Miller, Jalen Rose and Dale Davis. Thanks to Andre Miller, the team leapt from 56-26 to 61-21, topping the Eastern Conference like they did in real life.

Other big movers included the Raptors (+6.5 wins), who took Steve Francis (6.4) at 12 instead of Aleksandar Radojevic (-0.1), a bust if there ever was one. The Magic gained four wins thanks to Wally Szczerbiak (6.2), whose rookie year outpaced Corey Maggette’s in a big way (2.6).

The Hawks added nearly three wins by swapping out Jason Terry (1.9) for Maggette (2.6) and adding Todd MacCullough (1.7) instead of Dion Glover (0.3), among other changes. But none of that was enough for them to get out of “bad team” range.

Where there are winners, there will also be losers.

The Nuggets saw the steepest dropoff (-4.6 wins) thanks to the loss of James Posey (4.3). In his place, Jumaine Jones (0.0) did basically nothing, and trading Chris Herren (0.5) for Cal Bowdler (0.2) hurts a little, too. Already a bad team, Denver only got worse.

The Bulls were horrible in real life in 99-00, going just 17-65, and got even worse in the re-draft universe. Swapping Elton Brand (7.5) for Shawn Marion (4.1) will hurt them this year, but eventually The Matrix will outshine Brand by a healthy margin. The Bulls also lost about half a win trading Ron Artest (2.3) and Michael Ruffin (0.6) for Kenny Thomas (2.2) and Wang Zhizhi (0.1).

Other big movers in the wrong direction include the Suns (-3.4), who held on to a playoff spot despite trading Shawn Marion for Rip Hamilton, and the Hornets (-2.2), who took Manu Ginobili instead of Baron Davis (2.1), a trade-up that won’t pay off for years. Charlotte still made the postseason, however.

There’s some shakeup in the standings, but nothing enough to change the real-life finals pairing of the Lakers and the Pacers. And true to life, Shaq and Kobe steamroll Indiana, setting up one heck of an NBA Draft dilemma about whom to protect.

Who will the Lakers block? Stay tuned for another post…

Standings:

East
1. Pacers 61-21
2. Heat 52-30
3. Raptors 52-30
4. Knicks 50-32
5. 76ers 48-34
6. Hornets 47-35
7. Magic 45-37
8. Bucks 42-40
9. Pistons 42-40
10. Celtics 35-47
11. Cavaliers 31-51
12. Nets 31-51
13. Hawks 31-51
14. Wizards 30-52
15. Bulls 13-69

West
1. Lakers 67-15
2. Blazers 59-23
3. Jazz 54-28
4. Spurs 53-29
5. Timberwolves 52-30
6. Suns 50-32
7. SuperSonics 45-37
8. Kings 44-38
9. Mavericks 39-43
10. Rockets 33-49
11. Nuggets 30-52
12. Grizzlies 22-60
13. Warriors 18-64
14. Clippers 15-67

NBA Finals:

Lakers over Pacers

Protected: Kobe Bryant
Best Unprotected Player: Shaquille O’Neal

 

 

Year 1: The 1999 NBA Draft

Elton Brand went first overall in 1999. Not so in our redraft, although he wasn’t far off.

Before we re-draft 1999, let’s set the scene. The San Antonio Spurs had just polished off the New York Knicks to win the NBA Finals, and responded by protecting young prodigy big Tim Duncan, who almost certainly would have been the first pick. The best unprotected player is 33-year-old David Robinson, whom the Chicago Bulls pass on with their first pick.

Here’s how it ended up going down…

TEAM: New Pick (Original Pick)

Round 1

1. Chicago Bulls: Shawn Marion, SF, UNLV (Elton Brand, PF, Duke)
2. Vancouver Grizzlies: Elton Brand (Steve Francis, PG, Maryland)
3. Charlotte Hornets: Manu Ginobili, SG, Argentina (Baron Davis, PG, UCLA)
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Jason Terry, PG, Arizona (Lamar Odom, PF, Rhode Island)
5. Toronto Raptors: Andre Miller, PG, Utah (Jonathan Bender, SF, High School)
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Lamar Odom (Wally Szczerbiak, SG, Miami-OH)
7. Washington Wizards: Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Russia (Richard Hamilton, SG, UCONN)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Baron Davis (Andre Miller)
9. Phoenix Suns: Richard Hamilton (Shawn Marion)
10. Atlanta Hawks: Corey Maggette, SG, Duke (Jason Terry)
11. Cleveland Cavaliers: Metta World Peace, SF, St. John’s (Trajan Langdon, SG, Duke)
12. Toronto Raptors: Steve Francis (Aleksandar Radojevic, C, Community College)
13. Seattle SuperSonics: Wally Szczerbiak (Corey Maggette)
14. Minnesota Timberwolves: James Posey, SF, Xavier (William Avery, SF, Duke)
15. New York Knicks: Jeff Foster, C, Texas State (Frederic Weis, PF, France)
16. Chicago Bulls: Kenny Thomas, PF, New Mexico (Metta World Peace)
17. Atlanta Hawks: Devean George, SF, Augsburg (Cal Bowdler, SF, Old Dominion)
18. Denver Nuggets: Jumaine Jones, SF, Georgia (James Posey)
19. Utah Jazz: Scott Padgett, SF, Kentucky (Quincy Lewis, SG, Minnesota)
20. Atlanta Hawks: Todd MacCullough, C, Washington (Dion Glover, SG, Georgia Tech)
21. Golden State Warriors: Francisco Elson, C, Cal (Jeff Foster)
22. Houston Rockets: Calvin Booth, C, Penn State (Kenny Thomas)
23. Los Angeles Lakers: Gordan Giricek, F (Devean George)
24. Utah Jazz: Lee Nailon, SF, TCU (Andrei Kirilenko)
25. Miami Heat: Michael Ruffin, PF, Tulsa (Tim James, PG, Miami)
26. Indiana Pacers: Dion Glover (Vonteego Cummings, PG, Pitt)
27. Atlanta Hawks: Evan Eschmeyer, F, Northwestern (Jumaine Jones)
28. Utah Jazz: Jonathan Bender (Scott Padgett)
29. San Antonio Spurs: Trajan Langdon (Leon Smith, C, High School)

Round 2

1. LAL: Rodney Buford (John Celestand, PG, Villanova)
2. LAC: Vonteego Cummings (Rico Hill, F, Illinois State)
3. CHI: Wang Zhizhi, C, China (Michael Ruffin)
4. DEN: Cal Bowdler (Chris Herren, G, Fresno State)
5. NJN: Obinna Ekezie, F, Maryland (Evan Eschmeyer)
6. WAS: Quincy Lewis (Calvin Booth)
7. DAL: Laron Profit, PG, Maryland (Wang Zhizhi)
8. VAN: Chris Herren (Obinna Ekezie)
9. ORL: Leon Smith (Laron Profit)
10. CLE: Tim Young, C, Stanford (A.J. Bramlett, C, Arizona)
11. DAL: Tim James (Gordan Giricek)
12. DEN: Ryan Robertson, F, Kansas (Francisco Elson)
13. MIN: Lari Ketner, C, Massachusetts (Louis Bullock, Michigan)
14. CHA: John Celestand (Lee Nailon)
15. HOU: AJ Bramlett (Tyrone Washington, F, Mississippi State)
16. SAC: Aleksandar Radojevic (Ryan Robertson)
17. NYK: William Avery (J.R. Koch, F, Iowa)
18. PHI: No pick (Todd MacCulloch)
19. MIL: No pick (Galen Young, G, Charlotte)
20. CHI: No pick (Lari Ketner)
21. HOU: No pick (Venson Hamilton)
22. VAN: No pick (Antwain Smith)
23. POR: No pick (Roberto Bergersen)
24. MIA: No pick (Rodney Buford)
25. DET: No pick (Melvin Levett)
26. BOS: No pick (Kris Clack)
27. GSW: No pick (Tim Young)
28. SAS: No pick (Manu Ginobili)
29. UTA: No pick (Eddie Lucas)

Biggest winner: Toronto Raptors

A few different teams had much better drafts with the gift of hindsight, but perhaps none more than the Raptors. They turned two first round picks that were essentially failures — Jonathan Bender and Aleksandar Radojevic — into Andre Miller and Steve Francis, two longtime NBA players who had some great years (although some won’t benefit Toronto…you’ll see what I mean).

It’s also noteworthy that while the Jeff Foster pick isn’t flashy, it will end up making a difference for the Knicks, whose Frederic Weis pick is maybe the worst in the entire draft.

Biggest loser: San Antonio Spurs

This will happen more than once.

The Spurs didn’t strike it rich with Leon Smith in the first round, but found a gem in Manu Ginobili with the second-to-last pick in the entire draft. Redraft world is nowhere near as kind, since everyone’s in on Manu’s secret. That means instead of a Smith-Manu combo, San Antonio walks away with Alaskan-born draft bust Trajan Langdon, a notable entry on the list of Dukies to fail in the NBA.

The Manu loss won’t hurt right away, since he took a few years to come to the NBA, but make no mistake: It will hurt.

What if no one ever got it wrong in the NBA Draft?

Every fan of a bad NBA team has one of these scenarios.

“What if we’d just drafted Steph Curry instead of Jonny Flynn? What if we had drafted DeMarcus Cousins instead of Wesley Johnson?”

In the history of one of the most entertaining leagues in the world, one thing is nearly constant: Teams miss on prospects all the time. Whether it’s expecting Greg Oden to be transcendent and passing on Kevin Durant, or taking a solid player like Randy Foye when you could have had the more volatile (but arguably better) Rajon Rondo, it happens. And one thing’s for sure — in each case, the fortunes of the team in question could have changed dramatically.

It’s only been three years, but we can already figure out who in this photo was worth drafting, and who’s a waste of our time.

So, the question presents itself: What if no one ever got it wrong? What if, regardless of circumstances for their careers, Andrea Bargnani was picked where he deserved to be? What if Greg Oden, Draymond Green, Isaiah Thomas and the like were, too?

That’s what I’ve set out to figure out. Dating back to 1999, I’ve re-drafted every season. But since every team would be better (or worse) depending on the new results, I’ve also re-projected every year, using Basketball Reference’s Win Shares (WS) statistic as the closest approximation to how many wins a player generated each season.

OOH! And I’ve added one wrinkle for fun. The team with the first pick in the draft, should they be so inclined, also has the option of choosing one player from the defending NBA Champions’ roster. Just for fairness, that team also has the opportunity to protect one of its players, so most likely its second-best player is most at risk. 

Now, a few things are going to be immediately and indisputably wrong with this simulation. For one, there’s no accounting for intangibles. Fit matters. Coaching matters. Environment, training staff, ownership, and a million other things can determine whether a player actually works out for one team or crashes and burns for the next. It’s the reason the Spurs seem to coax amazingness out of at least one complete unknown each season.

Another thing: I have not accounted for positions. We’re playing positionless basketball here. So if a team already has Russell Westbrook on its (new) roster, and Damian Lillard is the best available player, they will draft Lillard and not look back. And I will not pretend as if the two could not play together, or would make each other worse.

And maybe the thing that’s going to bug you the most: I am treating players as numbers, nothing else. There’s no effect on player movement, trades, etc. That means that yes, the Timberwolves will still trade Kevin Garnett, even if they just won the Finals, and the return will be different. Draft picks will change hands the same. And when Dwight Howard signs in Houston, whoever was drafted in his place will sign there instead.

It’s an imperfect system, I know, but I’m doing my best here. And it got really complicated really fast.

So, before we start our simulation with the 1999 NBA Draft, let’s just talk about technique.

1. Each season “begins” with the NBA Draft. As I said, the team who picks first can pick anyone in the draft class, or could opt instead for an unprotected player from the defending champion.
2. The rest of the picks are sorted by total career Win Shares. The guy with the most Win Shares goes first, and so on. This will make for some subjectively odd choices, but we will deal with it.
3. Apply transactions to each team, including free agency and trades. For the most part, mid-season trades don’t really affect the teams until the following season. So unless a player is traded within a month of two of the season opener, his stats will apply more to the team he started the season with.
4. I then determined the new roster for each team, and the change in Win Shares. I applied that change to each team’s record, and recorded the standings.
5. The champion each year will be the team with the most regular season wins. Anything else would be too subjective.
6. We then set the new draft order, re-draft, apply free agency, offseason trades and early-season trades, and go again!

The next post will be the re-do of the 1999 NBA Draft, and will kick off what is sure to be a long series of posts. Any questions?